College Football Playoff Semifinal: Betting market update

Welcome to the College Football Playoff semifinal betting market update.

This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

If you aren’t familiar, Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve each week.

CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL: NOTRE DAME VS. PENN STATE

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	ND -1.5	ND -1.5	ND -2
Total	45.5	46.5	45

Spread: We saw this spread move up to 2 shortly after opening. There wasn’t much movement over the weekend, but now books are taking this to 2.5. The market is currently split between those two numbers. We’ve not seen a 3 anywhere, and I don’t anticipate we do.

Total: The initial move here was up to as high as 47.5. Since it’s hit that mark, it’s been a consistent slide down to where it sits now at 45. There are still some 45.5s on the board.

Buy/Sell: If you missed it, I’m on the under here. Despite the lower number now, I still like the under at 45.5.

National Championship Odds: Notre Dame +410 | Penn State +500

GOODYEAR COTTON BOWL CLASSIC: OHIO STATE VS. TEXAS

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	OSU -1.5	OSU -6	OSU -6
Total	51.5	54	53.5

Spread: It has been quite the adjustment from the lookaheads to now, with Ohio State holding a 6-point advantage. We’ve seen this get down to as low as 5 before jumping back up to 6. The market is pretty split now between 5.5 and 6.

Total: The total has not moved much besides a half-point decrease to 53.5. A few books have taken that down even further to 53.

Buy/Sell: I’m back to fade Ohio State once more. Even though lookahead markets are relatively illiquid, I think this move was too much, and I’ll take Texas +6. If you can find a flat +5.5, I’d prefer that number.

National Championship Odds: Ohio State -120 | Texas +450