College Football Playoff Quarterfinal: Betting market update

Welcome to the College Football Playoff quarterfinal betting market update.

This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

If you aren’t familiar, Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve each week. 

We’ll also provide an update for each bowl game, where market dynamics differ significantly and are largely influenced by transfer portal entries, player opt-outs and coaching changes.

VRBO FIESTA BOWL: PENN STATE (No. 4) VS BOISE STATE (No. 9)

Spread: Aside from a couple of one-off bad lines, this game has yet to reach a consensus number below 10. It only took 90 minutes from opening for this line to move to 11.5. It’s reached as high as 12 but has settled at 11. You can still find both 10.5 and 11.5 at widely available books. We will see what Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty can do against this daunting Nittany Lions defense. 

Total: There’s only been a slight movement on the total, with a 1-point adjustment up on the total to 52. You can still find a half-point in either direction. 

National Championship Odds: Penn State +500 | Boise State +8500

CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL: TEXAS (No. 3) VS. ARIZONA STATE (No. 12)

Spread: We’ve been back and forth on this spread between 13.5 and 14 since opening on Saturday night. No books have explored any other numbers. We’ve seen the market, for the most part, settle on 13.5, with only one 14 remaining on the board at Kambi Books. 

Total: This total has not budged at all from the opening 52. 

Buy/Sell: You can read here why I’m taking Texas at -13.5.

National Championship Odds: Texas +310 | Arizona State +6500

ROSE BOWL PRESENTED BY PRUDENTIAL: OHIO STATE (No. 6) VS. OREGON (No. 1)

Spread: It’s been all Buckeyes after they flipped to a favorite from the lookahead market and have since pushed their spread out to 2.5. We won’t see a 3 here, but the sentiment is positive surrounding Ohio State after their big win over Tennessee. The first time these two teams met this season, Ohio State was a 3.5-point favorite at Eugene.  There’s nothing but 2.5s across the board this time around in what's shaping up to be an epic Rose Bowl.

Total: Support on the over as pushed this 2 points above the opening number of 53. The market is currently split between 55 and 55.5, but some books have taken this all the way to 56. We’re in the same neighborhood of 54.5, which was the closing total in their Week 7 matchup. 

Buy/Sell: Read here about why I’m locking in the Ducks on the ML after an overreaction in the market. 

National Championship Odds: Ohio State +330 | Oregon +480

ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL: NOTRE DAME (No. 5) VS. GEORGIA (No. 2)

Spread: Although we’re back at the opening number of 1, the Bulldogs reached as high as 2.5, and a few books still have them there. This was despite Notre Dame being a slight favorite in the lookahead market before their 10-point win over Indiana, which doesn’t fully reflect how dominant their win was. It’s important to note that Indiana scored in the last 90 seconds of the game in garbage time. 

Total: The first move here was an immediate jump up to 44.5, but it’s since settled back in at 44. There are still some 44.5s out there. With Caron Beck’s season-ending surgery, it’ll be dual-threat and former four-star QB Gunner Stockton getting the start. This drop in total from the lookahead reflects his ability to use his legs and keep the clock moving, as we saw against Texas in the SEC Championship game when he entered the game in relief of the injured Beck. 

Buy/Sell: I’m selling the move on Georgia and locking in Notre Dame at +110 on the ML at Caesars. I have the Irish as a small favorite, closer to what we saw in the look-ahead market. 

National Championship Odds: Notre Dame +700 | Georgia +480