As the 2021 college football regular season heads toward the home stretch, weather will continue to be a factor when looking at betting totals across the board.
An early look at the forecast for the Week 8 college football slate is showing some potentially windy conditions in the plains, and maybe some rain in the Northwest, as well. For this weekend’s sides, you can check out my spread picks article, and be sure to use PFF Greenline for the best value remaining on the board going into the weekend.
We’ll be looking to keep things in the positive with the weekly college football over/under plays after going 4-2 last week.
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Liberty Flames @ North Texas Mean Green UNDER 60.5
Projection: 56.2
North Texas has been horrible on both sides of the ball this season, failing to lead for a single snap against an FBS opponent. The offense, in particular, has really held the team back, and it will have a tough time against a Liberty defense that has quietly been very efficient this season. The Flames’ defense ranks 22nd overall in expected points added (EPA) per play and is primed to shut down this North Texas passing attack.
The Mean Green rank in the bottom 10 in passing grade, yards per attempt and pass-blocking grade, while Liberty’s defense ranks ninth in yards allowed per coverage snap and 11th in pass-rush win rate. North Texas’ offense has been stagnant all year long. D don’t expect that to change in Week 8.
On the other side, Liberty does have a good matchup against this North Texas defense, but don’t expect it to be in any hurry. With the Flames’ run-heavy offense, they rank just 113th in possessions per game. Expect a heavy dose of the ground game for Liberty with quarterback Malik Willis, whose 96.0 rushing grade comfortably leads all players, regardless of position. He’s forced 49 missed tackles on 55 attempts and is averaging an incredible 6.17 yards after contact per carry.
Although Liberty was on the wrong end of one of the biggest college football upsets in recent years last week, don’t expect it to have any trouble against a North Texas team that has seen its season go off the rails. The Flames are a ground-heavy team, and they may have an added incentive to go that route in this game, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 miles per hour in the forecast for Denton on Saturday.
Click here for PFF Greenline’s cover probabilities for side, total and moneyline.
Florida Atlantic Owls @ Charlotte 49ers UNDER 57
Projection: 51.3
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