We’re coming off a 4-2 week for the weekly college football over/under article, and that’s including one of the worst bad beats of the season for the UNDER 57 in the Auburn/Georgia State contest. A couple of late touchdowns blew the under by one point. If you tailed, sorry for bringing up painful memories, but at least we ended in the green.
But it's a new week, and that means new best bets. I've already discussed the best spread picks for Week 5 of the 2021 college football season, so we now turn to over/under bets. As always, make sure to check out PFF Greenline for your college football picks before digging into these articles, and good luck to everyone as we head into October.
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Oklahoma Sooners @ Kansas State Wildcats UNDER 52.5
Projection: 48.4
This clearly isn’t the Oklahoma team we have come to know under Lincoln Riley, as evidenced by a total that is eight points lower than it was last year for this matchup. The best unit for the Sooners this season has been the pass rush, which ranks sixth in grading and 12th in pass-rush win rate. Edge rusher Nik Bonitto has continued his elite play from 2020, as his 93.2 pass-rushing grade currently leads the nation. Against an offensive line that ranks 125th out of 130 teams in pressure rate, this front has a big edge going into Saturday.
Kansas State had an efficient quarterback in Skylar Thompson, but his injury thrust Will Howard into the starting role. Since taking over in Week 2, Howard has earned a 44.1 passing grade that ranks 147th out of 156 quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks, which caused Kansas State to give sophomore quarterback Jaren Lewis the majority of the passing snaps last week. Lewis didn’t fare any better, however, with a 28.9 passing grade and four turnover-worthy throws on 21 attempts. Things look bleak for this Kansas State offense, and it’s tough to see it having much success against the Sooners.
Oklahoma’s lack of efficiency in the passing game so far has been surprising, and it sits at just 70th in yards per attempt after four weeks. Spencer Rattler hasn’t made a big-time throw all season but has an interceptable throw rate and average depth of target that rank outside the top 100 in the nation.
Overall, the Lincoln Riley offense that has typically dominated college football ranks just 57th in expected points added per play. The Sooners have played in two straight low-scoring games, and expect that to continue against a struggling Kansas State offense.
Click here for PFF Greenline’s cover probabilities for side, total and moneyline.
Arizona State Sun Devils @ UCLA Bruins OVER 55.5
Projection: 62.1
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