Best QB props for Super Bowl 57: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) during his pregame ritual prior to the AFC Championship game against the Cincinnati Bengals at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

By Ben Brown
Posted Feb 10, 2023 8:00 am EST

No position takes center stage in the Super Bowl quite like quarterback. And the quarterback betting prop menu appears endless. Let’s set up initial baselines for this signal-caller matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs‘ Patrick Mahomes and the Philadelphia Eagles‘ Jalen Hurts, then touch on some novelty props before scanning for value using PFF’s play-by-play simulation.

QUARTERBACK MATCHUP RANGE OF OUTCOMES

It obviously starts with Patrick Mahomes. Lock in an easy winner when he’s the first quarterback shown during the national anthem (-160) — because he’s the only one in the league capable of winning this matchup with an upper-bound performance. There is roughly a 10% chance of a ceiling-outcome performance where Mahomes is so brilliant it really doesn’t matter what the Eagles do.

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