NFL Week 8 is here, which means it's time to take advantage of some high-value player props.
My picks went 1-2 last week. Miles Sanders sustained a game-ending injury, which secured the under on his rushing yardage prop. However, even if he stayed healthy and took 80% of the carries his backups took, he still wouldn’t have hit the over. Jakobi Meyers was one catch away from hitting the over on his receptions prop in a game where the New England Patriots were even more dominant than expected. Justin Fields, unfortunately, couldn’t get close to the end zone in the worst game of his NFL career. This article's record now stands at 7-8 on the season.
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RB Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears: Over 11.5 receiving yards (-114)
Herbert has taken over the Bears backfield in David Montgomery‘s absence. He played 77% of Chicago's offensive snaps this past week, including 91% of the third-down work. He’s unlikely to lose this role as long as Montgomery is still out because of how much better he’s played than Damien Williams.
He has not only run the ball well, but he has also graded well as a receiver. He gained 15 receiving yards two weeks ago on two catches and 33 yards last week on five catches.
The top reason why he could fail to reach 12 yards — and why Bears receivers have had trouble in the past — is Justin Fields' performance under pressure. He’s the only starting quarterback to have a completed pass on less than 20% of his dropbacks when under pressure. He leads the league in sack percentage while under pressure and is among the top-five quarterbacks in scrambles under pressure. Add in his below-average completion percentage, and he rarely completes a pass when under pressure.
Luckily, he faces a San Francisco 49ers team that is bottom four in pressure rate this season. Nick Bosa is playing well but not nearly as well as his rookie season while Dee Ford still hasn’t lived up to his last season in Kansas City. The Bears' pass protection should provide Fields enough time to target Herbert on, at least, a few occasions. Every backfield that's faced San Francisco this season has caught at least three passes.
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