Island games are the highlight of any NFL week for betting enthusiasts. As the industry continues to grow, some of the most discussed moments belong to single-game opportunities.
Click here for more PFF tools:
Rankings & Projections | WR/CB Matchup Chart | NFL & NCAA Betting Dashboards | NFL Player Props tool | NFL & NCAA Power Rankings
As such, below is the only betting guide needed to unearth tons of expected value for each Sunday night contest throughout the 2021 NFL regular season.
We begin with a Week 5 contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills.
Related content for you: NFL Week 4 Odds and Best Bets via Eric Eager and George Chahrouri
GAME LINES
Sunday Night Football this week is a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship game between the red-hot Bills and Chiefs. After The Chiefs opened as -3 home favorites, the line has since moved half a point in the Bills favor, where Patrick Mahomes sees value in the Chiefs covering the spread.
The Chiefs currently sit atop PFF’s Power Rankings despite their NFL-worst 0.175 EPA per play allowed and second-worst team-defense grade. It all comes down to Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense, which ranks first in EPA per play (0.204).
One key matchup to watch will be All-Pro TE Travis Kelce versus the Bills defense.
Kelce has been his usual dominant self through four weeks this season, posting an NFL-best 90.7 receiving grade (min. 80 snaps) while leading all tight ends in receptions, yards and touchdowns. The Bills defense has been good at defending tight ends this season, as it currently sits sixth in the league in coverage grade versus the position (71.9). However, the Bills have yet to face a tight end of Kelce’s caliber, as Mike Gesicki is the best receiving tight end they’ve faced through four weeks. According to PFF’s TE Matchup Chart, Kelce has a 21% matchup advantage over Bills linebacker Matt Milano.
Kelce’s domination over the middle of the field creates numerous mismatches for the Chiefs offense and forces opposing teams to use their safeties closer to the line of scrimmage, which then opens up the deep passing game to Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman. If Kelce, whose player prop totals for this game are currently 7.5 receptions and 88.5 yards, has a big game, it’s going to be difficult for the Bills to cover the spread as road underdogs.
PFF Greenline also sees value on the under 56.5-point total with a 52.4% cover probability. The under matches the breakeven point in this game, and there is too much unpredictable variance in NFL game scripts to justify taking the over at a total that is the highest of the season thus far.
PICK: Chiefs -2.5 and UNDER 56.5
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.