Player props have officially entered the mainstream because they are the easiest way for new bettors to profit in sports betting. Over 800 player props are currently loaded into PFF’s prop tool, which doesn’t even model every single player prop offering currently available at all sportsbooks. Being able to quickly sift through the best and worst bets in an automated way is one of the easiest ways to cultivate sports betting success.
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Due to the sheer volume of listings, player props are often the easiest bets to beat consistently. Books have a difficult time keeping up with late-breaking news and digesting how the latest information impacts every player expected to be on the field.
This article's Week 16 bets went 3-1, finishing +2.0 units. After a 2020 season that went 92-68 for +17.1 units, we are now 28-33 for -5.45 units in 2021 — a 120-101 record across the two seasons for +11.65 units.
Using the PFF prop tool as a guide, let’s find the best values on the board for Sunday’s Week 17 main slate of NFL action.
QB JUSTIN HERBERT, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: UNDER 0.5 INTERCEPTIONS (-115)
Herbert’s interception props have been a bit of a letdown in 2021. He has finished over his prop number in 10 of 15 games this season despite recording the seventh-lowest percentage of turnover-worthy plays. Among current starting quarterbacks, Herbert has the highest percentage of turnover-worthy plays that led to an interception. He is the only NFL quarterback with more interceptions than turnover-worthy plays in 2021. All of this points to one thing: Herbert has dealt with an unprecedented amount of bad interception luck in 2021.
The Denver Broncos defense isn't the best unit to target when betting the under on an interception prop, as it sits 13th in PFF’s opponent-adjusted defensive rankings and moves up to 11th when looking at only its coverage unit. However, the Broncos don’t generate pressure at a high rate and have struggled to make quarterbacks uncomfortable in the pocket.
Los Angeles is in a must-win spot to keep its slim playoff hopes alive, and there’s an expectation that Herbert will play one of his best games of the season as a result. His receiving unit should finally be back to full strength, as PFF’s modeling points toward a clean, efficient game for Herbert through the air. It is late in the season, but expecting him to regress from an interception standpoint looks like one of the best betting opportunities in Week 17.
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