Player props have officially entered the mainstream because they are the easiest way for new bettors to profit in sports betting. Over 800 player props are currently loaded into PFF’s prop tool, which doesn’t even model every single player prop offering currently available at all sportsbooks. Being able to quickly sift through the best and worst bets in an automated way is one of the easiest ways to cultivate sports betting success.
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Due to the sheer volume of listings, player props are often the easiest bets to beat consistently. Books have a difficult time keeping up with late-breaking news and digesting how the latest information impacts every player expected to be on the field.
Week 11 was our first perfect week, as this article's betting card finished 4-0. After a 2020 season that went 92-68 for +17.1 units, things have finally started to turn around after an awful start in 2021. Last week brings us to 18-23 for -5.37 units in 2021. A 110-91 record across the two seasons for +11.73 units won.
Using the PFF prop tool as a guide, let’s continue to stack wins together in the second half of the NFL regular season and find the best values on the board for Sunday’s Week 12 main slate of NFL action.
QB BEN ROETHLISBERGER, PITTSBURGH STEELERS: UNDER 0.5 INTERCEPTIONS (+111)
Roethlisberger somehow hasn't thrown an interception since Week 4 while finishing under his interception prop in six of nine games this season.
His 7.0 average depth of target (aDot) is the second-lowest among current starting quarterbacks. He does have a high turnover-worthy play percentage and has been relatively inaccurate this season, ranking 27th in PFF’s accuracy charting metric.
However, he doesn't throw a lot of interceptions because he misses short. It’s difficult for a defense to take advantage of a poor throw if all it does is trickle four yards short of its intended target. It’s not the most enjoyable bet to make, but if you like edge-of-your-seat suspense for an entire NFL game, bet on Roethlisberger finishing under his interception prop in Week 12.
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