Season-long fantasy football may be over, but the fun doesn’t have to end, as DFS and player props will continue right up until the Super Bowl 56 kickoff.
After a successful stint on PrizePricks throughout the 2021 regular season, I'll continue to cover my favorite weekly player props bets for the Super Bowl, and there will be a particular emphasis on hitting inefficient lines early in the week.
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My conference championship round picks went an impressive 10-5 thanks to an early jump on inefficient receiving lines. The early-week market is where we can find an edge, and it’s our job as bettors to hammer the bad lines as much as possible. I like to look for lines that will inevitably move at the start of every week. Be sure to check back to this article, as props will be periodically added as we inch closer to Super Bowl Sunday.
For those making the leap from fantasy football to player props, PrizePicks is DFS made easy: Choose two or more players from the board and whether they go over or under their projected fantasy score or single stat. The payout increases with each additional leg, similar to a parlay bet.
AFC & NFC Championship Recap
HITS:
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WR VAN JEFFERSON, LOS ANGELES RAMS: UNDER 2.5 RECEPTIONS
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QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: UNDER 232.5 PASSING YARDS
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RB JOE MIXON, CINCINNATI BENGALS: OVER 51.5 RUSHING YARDS, UNDER 30.5 RECEIVING YARDS
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T.E. C.J. UZOMAH, CINCINNATI BENGALS: UNDER 40.5 RECEIVING YARDS
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WR TYLER BOYD, CINCINNATI BENGALS: UNDER 45.5 RECEIVING YARDS
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RB CAM AKERS, LOS ANGELES RAMS: UNDER 58.5 RUSHING YARDS
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RB JERICK MCKINNON, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: UNDER 35.5 RECEIVING YARDS
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WR BRANDON AIYUK, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: OVER 5 TARGETS
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RB CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: UNDER 39.5 RUSHING YARDS
MISSES:
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QB PATRICK MAHOMES, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: OVER 26.5 RUSHING YARDS
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WR/RB DEEBO SAMUEL, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: OVER 34.5 RUSHING YARDS
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RB ELIJAH MITCHELL, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: UNDER 2 RECEPTIONS
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WR BYRON PRINGLE, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: OVER 35.5 RECEIVING YARDS
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TE GEORGE KITTLE, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: OVER 48.5 RECEIVING YARDS
WR TEE HIGGINS, CINCINNATI BENGALS: OVER 65.5 RECEIVING YARDS, OVER 5 RECEPTIONS
Higgins’ receiving line closed at 67.5 last week, so his receiving yardage prop received a slight bump after he went over 96 receiving yards in back-to-back weeks. His 10-yard wild-card performance seems like an absolute mirage after Higgins commanded a team-high 26% target share over the last two weeks — superior to rookie Ja’Marr Chase.
With the Los Angeles Rams — fourth in receiving yards, third in receptions allowed to WRs during the regular season — likely using Jalen Ramsey to limit Chase, I expect Higgins to feast on the rest of the Rams’ secondary.
Tight end C.J. Uzomah looks far from a sure-fire bet to suit up after suffering a knee injury in the AFC Championship Game, which will just consolidate targets around Chase and Higgins.
The duo combined for a 50% target share versus the Kansas City Chiefs.
Consider stacking the over Higgins' receiving yardage prop with an over on Joe Burrow’s 265.5-yard passing prop. Cincy has thrown at a 61% clip on early downs in its last four games — a mark that would have ranked third when compared during the regular season. The Rams defense has seen the sixth-highest pass-play rate on early downs this season (60%).
Quarterback passing yards props tend to get bet up as the week progresses anyway, so I would pounce on Burrow's early if possible.
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