The sports betting industry has exploded in recent years, ushering in an assortment of new and innovative betting opportunities. At this point, it feels like someone can wager on almost any event occurring during the course of a football game.
Some of the most worthwhile betting opportunities exist in the derivatives market. A derivative is any betting line that is derived from another; the most common example is first-half odds, which are derived from the full game counterpart. Numerous other options exist, however, spanning from first-half spreads and totals to betting by the quarter.
Bookmakers spend a significant portion of their time and resources handicapping full-game lines efficiently. This helps as a proxy for derivative bets and creates opportunities for those willing to research and find discrepancies in markets that can be capitalized on. Full-game markets get all of the headlines, but the bread is buttered in places where people often don’t look initially.
Before kickoff, we can evaluate individual derivative bets by utilizing some of our predictive models along with team tendencies and production when starting a game. The charts referenced below highlight teams' early-game ability through the first seven weeks of the season. These will be our guide as we look for value in some other derivative betting markets.
Our written picks went 1-2 last Sunday, pushing us to 9-9 on the season. After a hot start, things have cooled off considerably for NFL derivatives. Our college plays have been keeping us in the black, but this is the week that things turn around for the NFL.
Editor's note: PFF's NFL & NCAA Betting Dashboards (PFF Greenline) offer PFF-exclusive insight on moneyline, against the spread and over/under picks for every NFL and FBS game in 2020. Subscribe to PFF ELITE to get access.
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