Best of PFF.com: Five articles to read today

Predicting quarterback landing spots in free agency and the 2020 NFL Draft

The NFL Combine gave us plenty to talk about, and we've cycled through all the interviews, psychological testing, medical reports and countless rumors. But things are about to start happening. Here's how we see things playing out between 4 p.m. Eastern on March 18, when free agency officially opens, and the conclusion of the NFL Draft in late April. Read more…

Investigating the individual draft success of every NFL team

We discussed the PFF WAR draft chart in two recent articles; one saw us use it to examine the “surplus value” of draft picks, the other saw us use it to explain why spending the No. 2 overall pick on Chase Young might be a bad idea. However, up until this point, we had foregone maybe its most natural application, and that is to use it to see which teams have drafted the best in recent memory and to determine if any team was able to beat the draft by being uncharacteristically good. Read more…

2020 NFL Draft: Justin Herbert has field-flipping arm strength but needs the right system

For Oregon’s Justin Herbert, the career arc got off to a great start. As a freshman in 2016, he posted a 77.2 overall PFF grade and then followed it with an impressive 90.5 mark as a sophomore, albeit on only 231 dropbacks. Herbert appeared destined for continued growth and a spot atop the 2019 draft class, especially given his 6-foot-6 frame with a strong arm and athleticism. Read more…

2020 NFL Draft: Henry Ruggs is worth an early first-round pick

There may be no draft name hotter right now than Henry Ruggs III. When you run a 4.27 40-yard dash at the combine (best among all players in attendance), post a 42-inch vertical jump (tied for second among all players) and a 131-inch broad jump (tied for fourth among wide receivers), that’s going to happen. The video of him posterizing helpless high schoolers and pulling out in-game dunk-contest jams only stoked that fire. Read more…

How Fragile is Defense: A look at the effect of stars versus depth on game outcomes

This has already been a great offseason for us at PFF, from my colleague Timo Riske revisiting a seminal piece by Cade Massey and Richard Thaler regarding the value of draft picks to Kevin Cole’s look at how each combine drill performs when projecting college players into the NFL. The PFF Forecast with myself and George Chahrouri has had plenty to talk about, with quarterbacks hitting the free-agent market to Tua Tagovailoa’s stock as the draft’s second-best quarterback. We’ve even published a few excerpts from our college-to-pro projection model over that past month. Read more…