aDOT-adjusted Completion Percentage

“Alex Smith has such a high completion percentage because he throws so many short passes.”

“Joe Flacco doesn’t complete many passes because of all those long bombs to Torrey Smith.”

Over the years, you’ve heard some variation of the above excuses for a good chunk of the league’s quarterbacks. Although “aDOT” (average depth of throw) is not yet a household statistic, fans usually have a decent idea of which quarterbacks like to chuck it deep, and which are overly conservative.

Today, I ran a test that weighted each quarterback’s completion percentage based on the depth of his throws. First, I examined five years of NFL-wide completion percentage data on throws made from each possible depth. This gave me an “expected” completion rate for each depth, which I was able to compare to the “actual” for each player. My sample was 83,631 aimed throws.

Before I dive into the numbers, let me explain the adjusted completion percentage used for this experiment.

Adjusted Completion Percentage = (Completions + Drops) / (Pass Attempts – Spikes – Throwaways – Batted Balls – Balls disrupted by a QB hit)

Because we’re trying to come up with the most accurate representation of a quarterback’s ability to complete a pass, I don’t want my numbers distorted by drops and “non-aimed throws.”

This article will include 10 charts. We’ll look at the best and worst Actual vs. Expected marks in five categories: All Throws, Behind the Line of Scrimmage, 0-to-9 yards, 10-to-19 yards, and 20+ yard throws.

All Throws

Rk	Quarterback	Aim	Actual	Expected	+/-
1	Alex D. Smith	203	81%	74%	7.4%
2	Aaron Rodgers	585	80%	73%	7.2%
3	Russell Wilson	414	77%	70%	6.9%
4	Peyton Manning	601	78%	72%	6.2%
5	Robert Griffin III	386	78%	73%	5.0%
6	Colin Kaepernick	283	73%	69%	4.9%
7	Drew Brees	618	76%	72%	4.6%
8	Ben Roethlisberger	409	76%	72%	3.8%
9	Matt Ryan	667	76%	72%	3.6%
10	Matt Cassel	248	74%	71%	3.4%

Throughout this article, you’re going to notice what seems like a general lack of volatility in the “expected” column. Although some quarterbacks tend to throw deeper than others, there’s rarely going to be an earth-shattering difference between the league’s lowest and highest marks. That may seem to make this exercise pointless, but our goal of improving on your standard completion percentage is achieved. Additionally, in the final eight charts, we’re splitting up throws by chunks of yardage. Although we’re weighting those throws, as well, the primary goal becomes determining which quarterbacks are most effective in each zone.

Colin Kaepernick’s 68.6 percent “expected” aC% is the lowest in the league. Remember, this in itself is not an indictment on his passing skills. What it means is that, in terms of the depth of his throws, he had the biggest challenge among all NFL quarterbacks. The good news for 49ers fans is that Kaepernick’s actual aC% was nearly 5 percent above his expected mark. As you can see from the chart, that’s the league’s sixth-best improvement.

Speaking of the 49ers, we see Alex Smith atop our chart. Smith’s 81 percent aC% was tops in the league. As impressive as that is, his 74 percent expected mark is near the league basement, which is a result of a high number of conservative throws. Still, even when we weight his completion percentage, we get a league-best mark.

Panning over our top 10, there aren’t many shockers. Nine of the 10 are projected 2013 starters and eight will be with the team they started for in 2012. The clear exception is Matt Cassel, who actually had a decent completion percentage when you consider the challenging throws he made. Cassel made a lot of critical mistakes during the 2012 season, but completing passes wasn’t one of his issues.

Rk	Quarterback	Aim	Actual	Expected	+/-
39	Ryan Lindley	159	64%	72%	-8.5%
38	John Skelton	187	65%	73%	-8.2%
37	Mark Sanchez	422	66%	71%	-5.0%
36	Brady Quinn	180	68%	73%	-4.3%
35	Chad Henne	283	67%	71%	-3.7%
34	Kevin Kolb	171	70%	73%	-3.5%
33	Christian Ponder	452	72%	75%	-3.0%
32	Blaine Gabbert	268	71%	73%	-2.7%
31	Josh Freeman	508	67%	69%	-2.4%
30	Ryan Fitzpatrick	483	71%	73%	-2.2%

Our next chart shows the 10 largest drops between actual and expected aC%.

To no one in Arizona’s surprise, Ryan Lindley and John Skelton rank one-two in this department. Additionally, Kevin Kolb comes in with the sixth-worst mark. Unfortunately, things may not improve much in 2013 with Drew Stanton and/or Brian Hoyer under center. (Editor's note: Arizona traded for Carson Palmer on April 2.)

Christian Ponder’s 75.1 percent “expected” aC% is an NFL-high. He tossed a ton of underneath throws to Percy Harvin and all but avoided long balls during the 2012 season en route to the league’s lowest aDOT. Unfortunately for Vikings’ fans, Ponder did a poor job completing passes despite so many “easy” throws. His actual aC% was a full 3 percent below his expected.

Although he doesn’t show up in the bottom 10, it’s worth pointing out that Joe Flacco sits 29th on this list. The NFL’s highest-paid quarterback completed 68 percent of his passes in 2012, which is 1.9 percent below his 70 percent expected mark. Needless to say, that’s not good. The “Torrey Smith deep-ball” argument has some validity, but not enough to fully excuse Flacco’s struggles.

Behind LOS

Rk	Quarterback	Aim	Actual	Expected	+/-
1	John Skelton	20	100%	92%	8.0%
2	Chad Henne	16	100%	92%	7.8%
3	Tom Brady	77	97%	92%	5.4%
4	Nick Foles	53	96%	92%	4.6%
5	Matt Hasselbeck	29	97%	92%	4.6%
6	Russell Wilson	47	96%	92%	4.0%
7	Robert Griffin III	73	96%	92%	3.8%
8	Andrew Luck	67	96%	92%	3.7%
9	Alex D. Smith	22	95%	92%	3.5%
10	Aaron Rodgers	85	95%	92%	3.5%

As mentioned earlier, going forward, we’re splitting up throws into four tiers. That makes the “expected” column less relevant. Instead, our goal is now to look at the quarterbacks who are accurate/inaccurate in each zone.

Interestingly, Skelton’s name has popped up again. He and Chad Henne completed every throw they made behind the line of scrimmage last season. Four rookies make our list. Of course, completing passes behind the line of scrimmage is obviously pretty easy (92 percent NFL mark).

Rk	Quarterback	Aim	Actual	Expected	+/-
39	Mark Sanchez	31	77%	92%	-14.4%
38	Kevin Kolb	16	81%	92%	-10.5%
37	Brady Quinn	22	82%	92%	-10.3%
36	Jake Locker	30	83%	92%	-8.8%
35	Ryan Tannehill	46	85%	92%	-6.9%
34	Sam Bradford	63	87%	92%	-4.5%
33	Tony Romo	49	88%	92%	-3.9%
32	Cam Newton	70	89%	92%	-3.4%
31	Matthew Stafford	79	89%	92%	-3.2%
30	Blaine Gabbert	27	89%	92%	-3.0%

How Mark Sanchez is even a candidate to start in 2013 is beyond me. The Jets’ overpaid bust completed a pathetic 20-of-31 passes behind the line of scrimmage last season, which was easily the league’s worst mark. It’s easy to blame Shonn Greene’s bad hands, but remember, we’re not even including drops here.

0-to-9 yards

Rk	Quarterback	Aim	Actual	Expected	+/-
1	Alex D. Smith	120	88%	80%	8.1%
2	Aaron Rodgers	303	87%	80%	7.4%
3	Russell Wilson	192	87%	80%	6.7%
4	Matt Cassel	115	85%	79%	6.6%
5	Ben Roethlisberger	181	85%	79%	5.2%
6	Peyton Manning	330	85%	80%	4.5%
7	Tom Brady	383	82%	78%	3.9%
8	Colin Kaepernick	138	83%	79%	3.4%
9	Tony Romo	358	83%	80%	3.3%
10	Drew Brees	306	83%	79%	3.2%

Here’s where Alex Smith really does his damage. The former No. 1 overall pick put up a league-best 88 percent aC% in the 0-to-9 range. Interestingly, he heads to Kansas City where he’ll replace No. 4 on the list, Matt Cassel. Hey kid, want to be an NFL quarterback? Take note of this chart. It’s the only one in the article that includes Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees, arguably the four best quarterbacks in the league.

Rk	Quarterback	Aim	Actual	Expected	+/-
39	John Skelton	103	72%	79%	-7.4%
38	Ryan Lindley	97	72%	79%	-7.1%
37	Cam Newton	179	73%	79%	-5.5%
36	Nick Foles	104	75%	79%	-4.4%
35	Matthew Stafford	364	76%	80%	-4.3%
34	Mark Sanchez	227	75%	79%	-4.1%
33	Andrew Luck	276	75%	79%	-3.7%
32	Joe Flacco	305	76%	79%	-3.3%
31	Josh Freeman	243	76%	79%	-3.3%
30	Kevin Kolb	97	76%	79%	-3.1%

Of our five “bad” charts, one of Skelton or Lindley ranks first in four of them. You get the point. They aren’t good. Going forward, I’ll stop commenting on them. Many are skeptical of Matthew Stafford’s abilities because of his heavy reliance on Calvin Johnson. This chart showing Stafford’s struggles in the 0-to-9 yard range gives his doubters additional ammunition.

10-to-19 yards

Rk	Quarterback	Aim	Actual	Expected	+/-
1	Robert Griffin III	95	77%	62%	14.9%
2	Matt Schaub	119	71%	62%	9.1%
3	Peyton Manning	147	71%	62%	8.9%
4	Drew Brees	149	70%	62%	8.5%
5	Ben Roethlisberger	113	70%	62%	8.2%
6	Matt Ryan	164	70%	62%	8.1%
7	Russell Wilson	102	70%	62%	7.6%
8	Alex D. Smith	42	69%	62%	6.7%
9	Aaron Rodgers	125	69%	62%	6.4%
10	Brandon Weeden	92	67%	62%	5.5%

Robert Griffin III was electric in the 10-to-19 range, completing 62-of-95 passes. His aC% was easily a league-best, and well above the 62 percent NFL average. Of our 10 charts, this is the only one where Brandon Weeden’s name appears. It was a rough rookie campaign for Cleveland’s first-round pick, but he did take advantage of his strong arm in the 10-to-19 range.

Rk	Quarterback	Aim	Actual	Expected	+/-
39	John Skelton	48	50%	62%	-12.1%
38	Chad Henne	78	53%	62%	-9.1%
37	Joe Flacco	116	55%	62%	-6.4%
36	Christian Ponder	100	55%	61%	-6.3%
35	Andy Dalton	106	58%	62%	-4.4%
34	Mark Sanchez	108	57%	61%	-4.1%
33	Eli Manning	150	59%	62%	-3.5%
32	Jay Cutler	101	58%	62%	-3.3%
31	Blaine Gabbert	48	58%	61%	-2.9%
30	Brady Quinn	36	58%	61%	-2.9%

The loss of Anquan Boldin could be very costly for Baltimore when you consider how bad Flacco was in the 10-to-19 range last season. You know you’re in trouble when you’re bookended in a stat category by Chad Henne and Christian Ponder. Eli Manning and Jay Cutler are two other notables here. A healthy Hakeem Nicks and the acquisition of Martellus Bennett, respectively, should help both improve in 2013.

20+

Rk	Quarterback	Aim	Actual	Expected	+/-
1	Colin Kaepernick	49	55%	40%	15.4%
2	Cam Newton	63	52%	39%	12.9%
3	Aaron Rodgers	72	53%	41%	12.2%
4	Peyton Manning	74	53%	41%	12.0%
5	Robert Griffin III	37	49%	38%	10.5%
6	Drew Brees	80	49%	39%	10.1%
7	Alex D. Smith	19	47%	39%	8.5%
8	Russell Wilson	73	48%	40%	8.2%
9	Matt Schaub	55	44%	39%	4.2%
10	Matt Ryan	80	44%	40%	4.1%

Finally, we have the long balls. Kaepernick proved to be an outstanding deep-ball passer during his rookie season, connecting on 25-of-49 throws 20-plus yards down field. In what is a good sign for Chiefs’ fans, Alex Smith shows up here. He didn’t throw a ton of deep balls, but did complete a strong 9-of-19 passes over 20 yards. Those concerned with Peyton Manning’s arm strength can breathe easy. In his first year with Denver, Manning was one of the most accurate deep-ball throwers in the game.

We already knew Ponder was ultra-conservative this past season, but our final chart of the day tells us that maybe there was a method to his madness. Ponder’s dreadful 25 percent aC% was fourth-worst in the league. The loss of Mike Wallace to the Dolphins certainly can’t help Ben Roethlisberger’s already-poor deep ball numbers.

Follow Mike Clay on Twitter: @MikeClayNFL