The efficiency vs. volume debate in fantasy circles is not going away anytime soon. Of course, there is merit in investigating both the sheer volume a receiver sees as well as what he does with that volume, but I find myself particularly drawn to one less-discussed statistic for fantasy receivers: targets per route run.
TPR is best looked at in correlation with other metrics and variables rather than in a vacuum by itself, but putting a number on how often a quarterback looks a certain receiver’s way helps paint a picture when trying to predict future trends. You wouldn’t be surprised to see the usual suspects near the top of the list (good receivers tend to get open – duh!) but did you know that Tyreek Hill was targeted on 31.2 percent of his snaps in route, which was tops among 96 qualifiers? New Chiefs’ starting X receiver and sleeper candidate Chris Conley is in line to improve upon his rate of 12.6 percent, which ranked 90th, but Jeremy Maclin wasn’t exactly the apple of Alex Smith’s eye at 18.7 percent, which came in at 48th.
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With the top- and bottom-10 in mind, let’s take a look at some notable receivers whose situations figure to change for better or worse in 2017, and specifically how those changes might relate to the frequency with which they are targeted.
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Jamison Crowder, Washington Redskins
With Pierre Garcon (110 targets) and DeSean Jackson (89) both having moved on, Washington has the most unclaimed WR opportunities in the league. Josh Doctson will garner some of those targets, although the second-year pro remains somewhat of a mystery after virtually all of his rookie season was wiped out by an Achilles injury (he opted not to have surgery). New addition Terrelle Pryor figures to grab the biggest chunk of available targets, but it would be a stretch to expect him to come to a new team and match last year’s output of 132 targets in Cleveland, the 12th-highest total among all receivers.
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