We’ve all been there. You get all excited circling the name of an up-and-comer who will outperform his fantasy draft stock, only to wind up disappointed when the stars don’t end up in alignment. But do you take that name off your draft board the following year, vowing not to be let down again? Or do you take another look at the circumstances, dig into the data, and find value where other drafters see only the bust label?
We’re taking a look at some of these very types, the “post-hype sleeper” candidates. This list is essentially comprised of guys drafted in the last three years who previously generated some breakout buzz, but for one reason or another it hasn’t quite happened. Of course, it might never happen. But in using PFF data to peel back the layers, a case can be made for each of these players to live up to their previous hype, if only a year or two later than once expected. Below are the running backs, with a piece on the wide receivers to come.
(Note: the average draft positions are via Fantasy Football Calculator PPR settings.)
Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers
NFL draft: second round, 2014
2017 ADP: 4.06
2016 ADP: 4.10 (4.09 in 2015)
The case against: The 49ers’ new regime hand-picked RB Joe Williams out of Utah in the fourth round, while Hyde remains unsigned past this year and has yet to make it through a full 16-game season.
The case for: Somewhat quietly, Hyde posted career-highs in yards per carry (4.6) and yards after contact (3.1) and was on pace for 1,200 rushing yards with 11 total touchdowns if not for injury. Granted, Hyde missed three games, although he actually ranked as a top-10 fantasy RB in points per game (12.8) during the 13 games he played. Now, despite the arrival of zone-blocking scheme guru Kyle Shanahan, The Joe Williams Hype Machine has effectively kept Hyde’s ADP in check. Keep in mind, Shanahan-led offenses have finished in the top-five in the league in rushing yards in three of the last five seasons (four times in that span he guided top-10 offenses in total yards). Although he has thus far been overshadowed by UDFA and “SPARQ” beast Matt Breida, Williams figures to make his mark on stretch plays and outside zone concepts (a la Devonta Freeman). But don’t sleep on Hyde, who is being drafted behind the likes of Isaiah Crowell, Spencer Ware, and Christian McCaffrey.
Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions
NFL draft: second round, 2015
2017 ADP: 6.01
2016 ADP: 7.10
The case against: Abdullah averaged less than 40 yards per game as a rookie, and then went down in Week 2 of his sophomore campaign with a season-ending Lisfranc injury.
The case for: Our Tyler Buecher recently tabbed Abdullah (as well as the next guy on this list) as breakout candidates, and while I won’t rehash Tyler’s points, Abdullah certainly fits the bill as a post-hype sleeper given his pedigree at Nebraska. The Lions spent the offseason reinforcing the O-line, even recently signing former first-team All-American second-rounder Cyrus Kouandjio and trading for former No. 2 overall pick Greg Robinson. Lions’ reporter Tim Twentyman was wowed by Abdullah’s burst in OTAs, noting Detroit is a different offense when he’s on the field. In his final collegiate season, Abdullah forced the third-most missed tackles of a loaded 2014 RB draft class, and in his only two games last season, he forced eight missed tackles on 23 touches.
C.J. Prosise, Seattle Seahawks
NFL draft: third round, 2016
2017 ADP: 8.11
2016 ADP: N/A (injured)
The case against: Prosise battled a cornucopia of injuries dating back to last summer, ultimately seeing action in only six games. The Seahawks offensive line was a disaster, finishing dead last in our final rankings. And the team has since brought Eddie Lacy into the mix to join a crowded backfield that also still includes Thomas Rawls.
The case for: You may recall Prosise’s 72-yard touchdown run against the Eagles in Week 11, but the former college receiver also saw eight of his 17 receptions go for 10 yards or more. At minimum, he will complement Lacy as a change-of-pace back and handle passing-down duties. ESPN Seahawks reporter Sheil Kapadia recently listed Prosise as a prime candidate to make a second-year leap, and it’s not hard to see why. Should Lacy succumb to any one of injury, poor conditioning, or performance while adjusting to his new offense, it’s no stretch that Prosise could very well seize the job and run with it.
Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns
NFL draft: third round, 2015
2017 ADP: 11.11
2016 ADP: 6.07
The case against: With limited volume, Johnson has finished outside the top-30 fantasy RBs even in PPR in each of his first two seasons.
The case for: Don’t go telling all your friends, but among running backs with at least 100 touches last season, Johnson posted the fifth-best elusive rating (72.5), having forced a missed tackle once every 3.7 touches. Johnson also stood out in Jeff Ratcliffe’s touch opportunity volatility metric. Despite averaging 4.9 YPC on the ground and hauling in 53 passes for 514 yards, the buzz surrounding Johnson has been rather quiet this offseason compared to last, and that’s a good thing. The Browns generated an average of 2.12 yards before contact in 2016, which was fifth-best in the league, although Isaiah Crowell posted a middle-of-the-pack 46.8 elusive rating and forced a missed tackle only once every 6.8 touches. Crowell did also lead the league in breakaway percentage (47.5), although coach Hue Jackson could be seeking more consistent production on the ground to keep the chains moving.
Devontae Booker, Denver Broncos
NFL draft: fourth round, 2016
2017 ADP: 14.04
2016 ADP: 12.09
The case against: Booker flat-out underperformed, averaging 3.5 YPC and failing to supplant C.J. Anderson as a rookie. The Broncos’ backfield got a bit more crowded this offseason when they added Jamaal Charles.
The case for: Charles is no lock to stick on the 53-man roster, while Anderson has battled his own injuries and seen his production steadily dip since his 2014 Pro Bowl season. Booker actually logged 28 touches for 189 yards and two TDs over his final two games, and he says he’s a lot more comfortable in Mike McCoy’s new power-blocking scheme, which fits Booker’s skillset and features plenty of passes to RBs out of the backfield. The second-year back noted that his head was spinning last season trying to pick up Gary Kubiak’s zone scheme, and while his surgically repaired left knee perhaps contributed to his second-half fade, his focus now is just getting downhill.
He may not, technically, qualify as a “post-hype” sleeper, unless you count the hype following his 2014 season at Arkansas. However, Jonathan Williams may be the handcuff to own this season as the backup to LeSean McCoy in Buffalo’s vaunted ground attack. Williams missed all of 2015 with a foot injury, but he possesses a three-down skillset after establishing himself as one of the highest-graded and most elusive backs in the country in 2014.
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