We’ve covered a lot of ground on Narrative Street this offseason. But, so far, many of our narratives have focused on season-long trends. Today, we’re bringing all of you DFS players a narrative that you’ll be sure to hear a time or two this season.
The narrative: Players perform better on their birthdays
Who doesn’t love a good birthday story? The NFL certainly pays attention to it. Marcus Mariota was given an on-set birthday party on NFL Network after playing a game. (It technically wasn’t even his birthday for a few more days.)
There will come a time this DFS season where you will want to roster a player because it’s his birthday. Should that influence your decision?
The research
I found all players from fantasy-relevant positions (QB, RB, WR, TE) who played on their birthday in any game for the past five seasons (2012-2016).
A couple of things to keep in mind; 1) The sample sizes are pretty small, and 2) I didn’t include players who had a birthday a day or two before the game, or a day or two after. Make of that what you will.
The findings
- Quarterbacks
Quarterbacks who have played on their birthday in the past five years actually do perform significantly better (from a fantasy perspective) than when playing on non-birthday days.
Birthday quarterbacks gain an impressive average of 7.9 yards per attempt. Those same quarterbacks typically average 6.6 YPA when playing on non-birthday days. That’s a rise of about 20 percent.
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