Fantasy football mock drafts: Lessons from a dynasty startup

As the post-draft dust settles and rookie values begin to crystallize, it makes for a great time of year to take a look at average draft position in dynasty leagues. Rookie fever is at (or near) its peak, which is always an interesting dynamic to observe when they are thrown into a draft queue with established veterans before having taken so much as a preseason snap, let alone a regular-season one. In addition to newcomers, it’s important to keep tabs on veteran players who saw their value change as a result of the draft for potential buy or sell opportunities.

The PFF Fantasy staff just completed a 12-team, 20-round, full-PPR dynasty mock draft, our first post-draft dynasty mock of the year. Below, I highlighted some of the picks and trends that stood out to me.

Round 1

The top of the draft went exactly as expected, with a receiver-heavy first round that also included the “Big Three” running backs. With the first pick, I considered taking Odell Beckham Jr., but the discrepancies in the age and current performance of the quarterbacks in question steered me toward Evans, who is coming off the fifth-highest-graded wide receiver season of the PFF era. As if that isn’t impressive enough, he did it at the tender age of 23. Evans has been a fantasy producer since the moment he stepped on an NFL field. Tampa is loading up around him and Jameis Winston, but he is still the lead dog for the ascending franchise quarterback. The presence of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard should help free up coverage and enable Evans to be more efficient on a per-target basis, which has been the one knock on him thus far in his career.

We see you Mike Evans. Not bad for his age 23 season! @PFF #Bucs pic.twitter.com/JlDhhJ3akG

— Josh Wisneski (@PFF_Wiz) May 11, 2017

At first glance, 1.03 may seem high for Amari Cooper, but his age, quarterback situation, and rock-solid floor make him a safer long-term pick than the running backs or some of the older wide receivers. Cooper is one of nine wideouts ever to eclipse 1,000 yards receiving in each of his first two seasons in the league (a list that also includes Evans, Beckham, and later-in-the-first-round A.J. Green). While I would probably take a few of the receivers that went later in the round ahead of them, the three running backs went in the order I would take them in. At age 21 with a mega-season already under his belt, Elliott is clearly the premier back to own in dynasty. I prefer Bell’s talent to Johnson’s in a vacuum, but when factoring in injury and suspension risk, Johnson gets the slight nod for me (they both turned 25 in the last six months).

Round 2

I firmly believe in a wide receiver-centric approach to dynasty startups, but round two was more running back-heavy than the first. Walton taking back-to-back running backs at the turn seems bold to me, especially when there is no consensus No. 4 back behind the big three. Gordon is definitely in that discussion, but I’d feel a lot better about pairing him with an elite wide receiver than Freeman if I had to wait another two rounds for my next pick.

The first three rookies also came off the board with Davis, Fournette, and McCaffrey being selected with successive picks in the back half of the round. Given the immense value that the 1.01 pick commands in trades, I’m OK with targeting the top rookies in that range. That is also the order I would have those three in, although I would have gone with Joe Mixon over McCaffrey.

Round 3

The value of Rob Gronkowski is one of the trickiest player prices to gauge in dynasty given his large range of outcomes. Having just turned 28 in May, the runway is getting shorter for him in terms of bounce-back time if he continues to suffer serious injuries. Still, if he were healthier, he’d be a first-round dynasty lock, which makes him a worthwhile risk in the third round. Jordan Reed, an injury-prone tight end himself, went with the very next pick.

Mixon came off the board shortly after, followed by another run on receivers that included fellow rookie Mike Williams and his new teammate Keenan Allen. Williams took a lot of heat during the draft process for his separation skills and subsequently his crowded landing spot, but I think both concerns are overblown. Even when he’s been on the field, Allen hasn’t averaged more than 10.8 yards per receptions since his rookie year in 2013, and Tyrell Williams is an undrafted free agent who was forced into volume last year. The Clemson product should have no problem taking over the other Williams’ role as the primary deep threat, and the rookie has more red-zone chops to work with. PFF correspondent Eliot Crist had an excellent writeup on how Williams dominates despite a perceived lack of separation. Phillip Rivers gives his receivers chances to make plays, which fits the No. 7 overall pick’s style perfectly.

Rounds 4-6

Walton paired his two running backs with two wide receivers at the third-fourth turn, and I love his pick of Terrelle Pryor in Washington, even if it is just on a one-year deal. Our own Pat Thorman wrote about how much opportunity there is for Pryor to be a target monster this year, and Kirk Cousins is easily the best quarterback he has ever played with. I’d bet on his value being higher this time next year. Round 4 also saw our first two quarterbacks come off the board in Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers. While I agree they should be the first two signal-callers taken, I value the guaranteed elite production of Rodgers more than I do the additional years of age with Luck.

Three tight ends were taken in the higher end of this range: Travis Kelce, Hunter Henry, and Tyler Eifert. Kelce’s value seems right here, but I probably would have looked elsewhere than Henry and Eifert given the remaining wide receiver value on the board. Despite plus per-reception efficiency, Henry’s aggregate fantasy production was largely touchdown-dependent last year, and Eifert has proven to be a significant injury risk despite admittedly stellar numbers when he has been on the field. I like both players, but there are tight ends I have valued similarly to be had in subsequent rounds when receiver and running back thin out. Greg Olsen went more than a full round later at 6.09, which seems like better value.

Scott swung for the fences with Martavis Bryant at 5.09, a risk that could pay off in huge ways if the dynamic Bryant can keep himself clean off the field. For similar reasons to my love for Walton’s Pryor pick, I also think Josh Doctson was a great selection for Tyler at 6.02. A consensus top-four rookie pick last year, Doctson barely got on the field due to nagging lower body injuries, but is reportedly looking healthy and stands to benefit just as much as Pryor from the available targets in Washington. He is one of my favorite buy-lows of the offseason.

Rounds 7-10

These rounds were running back- and tight end-heavy as we saw the secondary tier(s) of rookies start to come off the board in earnest. The top three rookie tight ends (Howard, Engram, Njoku) all were selected between 7.10 and 8.07, showing how closely valued they are in dynasty circles. Other rookies taken in this range included Alvin Kamara, Samaje Perine, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jamaal Williams, D’Onta Foreman, and Joe Williams. Especially in this full-PPR format, I think Kamara is a great value. The Saints gave up a second-rounder next year to get him in the third this year, and he projects to immediately step into a-passing down role that has consistently produced monster PPR seasons for those who have occupied it.

There were also a bevy of sophomores that went in these rounds, including Paul Perkins, C.J. Prosise, Sterling Shepard, Laquon Treadwell, and Malcolm Mitchell. Second-year players who didn’t thrive as rookies make for some of the best “buy” opportunities in dynasty on annual basis. Of that group, the value that stands out to me is Prosise. A converted college receiver, Prosise shined in brief stints last year, and is now flying under the radar following the Eddie Lacy signing. The second-year back is easily the best passing-down option in Seattle’s backfield and should see an expanded, multi-dimensional role if he can stay healthy. I was happy to grab Marshawn Lynch running behind PFF’s fifth-highest-graded run-blocking offensive line at 8.12 after going receiver-heavy early. That is a small price to pay for what looks like at least one if not two years of near-RB1 production.

Rounds 11-15

Round 11 was littered with rookies as seven of the 12 picks came from this year’s class. The secondary tier of rookie running backs went much faster in this draft than the secondary tier of receivers, leaving Chris Godwin, Zay Jones, Carlos Henderson, and Taywan Taylor to be scooped up at tremendous value. All four of those players have rookie draft ADPs in at least the second-round range of rookie drafts.

Pat gets a thumbs up from me for his selection of Jonathan Williams, who is now the clear-cut handcuff to LeSean McCoy. McCoy is good for a few games missed every year, and Buffalo is a run-heavy team regardless. Williams flashed big-time potential as a junior at Arkansas before an injury made him miss his senior year. In this part of the draft, he is exactly the type of potential high upside backup you want to be targeting. Along the same lines, Devin Funchess is a player that intrigues me as reports continue to swirl about Kelvin Benjamin’s conditioning. The 23-year-old could push Benjamin for more deep targets with a step forward in his third season.

There were some great quarterback values to be had in this range, including Tom Brady, Carson Wentz, Matthew Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, and rookie Patrick Mahomes. This serves as yet another reminder that if you miss on the elite tier of Luck and Rodgers, you are probably better off loading up at wide receiver and running back for a few rounds and waiting to get similar quarterback production further down the line. This is especially true in 10 and 12 team leagues.

Round 16-20

This portion of dynasty drafts is generally a wasteland, but it ends up being an interesting commentary on each of the respective drafters who are now targeting “their” guys, especially rookies. Elijah Hood is one of my favorite late-round rookie fliers this year. Already drawing positive reviews from the Oakland coaching staff, he has feature back size (and skills) and landed in a great offense. He is the easy choice for me if you are trying to handcuff Lynch long term.

Pat took eternal tease Jimmy Garoppolo at 17.10, but that pick could turn a mighty profit by this time next year. Given what he’s shown in limited action, there’s no doubt Garoppolo would be going several rounds higher if he had a clearer path to playing time, which should materialize one way or another in 2018. Depending on how they use Christian McCaffrey, I think Scott may have gotten a short-term steal at 18.04 in Jonathan Stewart, who still projects as the early-down bruiser and goal-line back for the Panthers. The 18th round is a paltry price to pay for even just one year of fantasy startability, and I’d bet on Stewart still holding flex value this year.

Two of my favorite dynasty stashes were taken in the final round: rookie Mack Hollins by Dan and sophomore Chris Moore by me. Hollins is on the older end of the prospect age spectrum, but at 6-foot-4 with 4.5 speed, he has a Mike Evans-esque physical profile. He only had 81 total college receptions, but he averaged a stellar 20.6 yards on those receptions, including two seasons with 8 receiving touchdowns. Praised as one of the better special-teams players in this class, Hollins should be able to make a 53-man roster that has no starting receivers under contract long term. Much has been made of the targets Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman will be showered with, but the Ravens will need someone else to step up around Joe Flacco. Similar to Hollins, Moore was an excellent deep threat in college, averaging 19.3 yards on 119 career catches at Cincinnati. It won’t take much for him to push for targets on Baltimore’s thin depth chart.