(“Today’s Crazy Fantasy Stat” is an occasional offseason offering from PFF that highlights something that catches our eye and aids in our preparation for the 2017 fantasy season.)
It’s fairly common for teammates to wind up near the top of the fantasy wide receiver rankings. As our own Michael Moore noted earlier this offseason, at least once a year for six straight years, teammates have both been top-12 fantasy receivers, including Michael Thomas and Brandin Cooks (New Orleans) and Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams (Green Bay) in 2016.
But that’s really the only position where that happens with any regularity, outside of a brief Gronkowski/Hernandez era in New England. No running back duo have both been top-12 in any year in the last decade (10th-place Jonathan Stewart and 13th-place DeAngelo Williams in 2009 came the closest). There have been 37 RB duos to both finish top-30 in the last decade, with the vast majority of that cohort finishing 20th or worse.
The fantast industry is undeterred, though. In early ADP data (from Fantasy Football Calculator), three different sets of teammates are both going in the top 30 at the running back position — Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman (Atlanta), DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry (Tennessee), and Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram (New Orleans).
Obviously, taking someone in the top 30 isn’t the same as claiming that player will finish there — there are floors and ceilings, risks and rewards to consider. But still, let’s take a look at the ways groups of teammates can both be fantasy starters, or close.
The starter and the guy who squeaks in
Examples: LeSean McCoy and Mike Gillislee, 2016 Bills; Arian Foster and Ben Tate, 2011 Texans; DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, 2008 Panthers
Usually, these results come from backups who have hard-to-sustain touchdown luck (Gillislee had eight touchdowns on 101 carries in 2016; Stewart had 10 on 184 in 2008). Meanwhile, the starters are top-tier guys. In the above examples, McCoy, Foster, and Williams all finished as top-four fantasy RBs. Thomas Jones, Darren McFadden, and Jamaal Charles have all had seasons as the bell-cow back in offenses that have allowed for a second top-30 running back. The backups in all those instances have finished 24th or worse.
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In some cases these are predictable (McCoy’s backups in Buffalo tend to be high-scoring), but the second back in these instances are low-ceiling, unexciting options. Guys who finish in the 20-30 range among running backs with regular playing time usually are unpredictable as to when those touchdowns come, meaning you’re playing a guessing game as to when the big weeks happen, and we want to be smarter than a guessing game.
The runner and the receiver
Examples: Doug Martin and Charles Sims, 2015 Buccaneers; Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, 2014-15 Bengals; Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead, 2012 Patriots
This is probably the most obvious one — one running back gets the carries and does the grunt work, while the other catches the passes and works as a de facto receiver and third-down option. Darren Sproles, Giovani Bernard, Danny Woodhead … these types are common these days.
None of the three pairings for 2017 really qualifies as these duos. The best bet for it, in fact, might be Detroit’s Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick. Riddick has been top-six in RB targets two straight years and, if he can increase his touchdown production, he could be the yang to breakout candidate Abdullah’s yin. He's being drafted in the mid-40s among running backs, and the Lions offense might not be potent enough to support two running backs at that level of production, which is why Riddick isn't going anywhere near the fantasy starters, but this duo is probably the most likely to fit this description in 2017, if anyone does it.
The midseason job switch
Examples: Matt Forte and Bilal Powell, 2016 Jets; Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford, 2015 Bears; Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount, 2013 Patriots
Forte lost his gig in 2015 to injury, and lost most of his role in 2016 as his age seemed to catch up with him. Langford and, particularly, Powell took over and closed strong. Meanwhile, for the 2013 Patriots, Ridley stayed active all year, but after averaging almost 15 carries a game in the first half of the season, he averaged only 10 down the stretch, while Blount saw a heavily increased role and scored five of his seven touchdowns in December.
These are the situations that justify the fantasy industry’s obsession with the “handcuff.” In all three cases (and others), the replacement was the obvious (or close to obvious) replacement from draft day, meaning fantasy owners who invested in the starter and the backup and managed to hold on to both all season. The flip side, though, is that it’s only happened so fittingly a handful of times, and predicting which of those times would have been worth the draft-and-stash would have been nearly impossible.
Among this year’s duos, the Murray/Henry pairing is the obvious candidate for the handcuff. Murray is coming off a season where he was the No. 5 back in fantasy, but he’s also 29 with a lot of tread on his tires, while Henry is a popular up-and-coming prospect. Henry might be a bit overdrafted at his current level (the No. 28 RB), but if he gets Murray’s gig, Henry is a potential star.
The committee
Examples: Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, 2016 Falcons; Andre Williams and Rashad Jennings, 2013 Cardinals; Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, 2013 Lions
Freeman and Coleman both finished 18th or better last year; Bush and Bell both finished 17th or better in 2013. Williams and Jennings did worse, neither finishing above 20th, but that’s at least in part because they were, you know, Andre Williams and Rashad Jennings. “Committee” doesn’t always mean “good.”
This is obviously where Freeman and Coleman fall again this year. If the Falcons offense remains as productive as it was in 2016, then Freeman as the No. 6 RB and Coleman as the No. 27 makes sense. The problem with that is that the Falcons are one of the safest bets in the league for negative regression in production this season, and while Coleman’s slightly lowered ADP as compared to his production last year bakes that in, a falling offense is likely to affect the No. 2 running back as early as anybody, so those drafting Coleman might be playing with fire.
Those are the primary classes of RB teammates who could both be top-30 fantasy finishers. But it does leave out one group that is relevant on draft day, and that is …
The unknown situation
Even on the Saints — a team that has gotten as much consistent production from the RB position as any franchise in recent years — it’s unlikely Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram both finish as top-30 backs this season. But with questions around both (Peterson is old for a back and coming off an injury-plagued season; Ingram appears to have fallen out of favor with the team), the drafting public doesn’t really know what to do with both guys. That means both get drafted as potential low-end starters, but the odds are one exceeds his draft position and the other falls short — we just don’t know which.
A little lower down the draft board are similar situations. Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine are going 35th and 36th at the position; Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray are going 29th and 34th. Barring a job-change scenario a la Forte and Powell or Forte and Langford, these pairings are like Peterson and Ingram—one of the teammates will be a draft-day value, and the other will fall short.
It’s rare for teammates to double up as fantasy starters at running back. Freeman/Coleman, Murray/Henry, and Peterson/Ingram are this year’s candidates, but counting on any duo to finish that way on draft day is a tough proposition.
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