• Josh Allen making an impact as a runner: Since Week 11, QB Josh Allen has become more of a factor as a runner. His 89.8 PFF rushing grade ranks first at his position over the last seven weeks, and he is averaging 8.2 rushing attempts per game compared to 4.8 attempts per game over the first 10 weeks of the season.
• Bradley Chubb's absence will be felt: No Dolphins player has recorded more total pressures than Bradley Chubb this season (70). His 13 sacks also leads his teammates, while his 16.6% pass-rush win rate and 15.7% pressure rate both rank second.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
When to watch: Sunday, Jan. 7th at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Spread: Bills -3
Over/Under: 49.5
The Bills' change in offensive coordinator leads to more carries for Josh Allen and fewer opportunities for Stefon Diggs
The Bills made the switch at offensive coordinator after their Week 10 loss to the Denver Broncos, replacing Ken Dorsey with Joe Brady after a 5-5 start to the season. Since then, they have gone 5-1, with the lone loss being a 37-34 overtime defeat at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles.
Since Week 11, Josh Allen has become more of a factor as a runner. His 89.8 PFF rushing grade ranks first at his position over the last seven weeks, and he is averaging 8.2 rushing attempts per game compared to 4.8 attempts per game over the first 10 weeks of the season.
Running back James Cook has also been relied on more, averaging 17.3 carries per game under Joe Brady compared to 12.0 per game over the first 10 weeks.
The increased emphasis on the ground game has led to a decrease in passing attempts, with Allen dropping from 35.0 attempts per game under Ken Dorsey to 31.8 per game under Joe Brady.
This has impacted Stefon Diggs’ production, with the Bills' No. 1 wide receiver dropping from 10.0 targets per game through Week 10 to 8.5 targets per game. Diggs' average depth of target has dropped from 11.0 yards to 9.9 yards, too.
If there is one positive caveat, the star wide receiver's average target depth over the past two games has been 14.8 yards.
Key defensive injuries hurt the Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins lost edge defender Bradley Chubb for the season in the Week 17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, and it looks likely that cornerback Xavien Howard will also miss this AFC East decider.
No Dolphins player has recorded more total pressures than Chubb this season (70). His 13 sacks also leads his teammates, while his 16.6% pass-rush win rate and 15.7% pressure rate both rank second.
Replacing him will likely come from the combination of Melvin Ingram and Cameron Goode. Both have a significantly lower pass-rush win rate than Cubb, with Goode winning on 9.7% of his pass-rush snaps and Ingram just 5.0%. It could also open the door for a return to the lineup for Emmanuel Ogbah, who appeared to be a healthy scratch last week. Ogbah has a 9.0% pass-rush win rate this year, though his 15.3% pressure rate is the third-best mark among edge defenders on the team.
Howard’s injury will force the Dolphins to rely on Eli Apple as a starter once again. Apple has been one of the most targeted coverage defenders this year, seeing a target once every 4.8 snaps, the third-highest rate in the league. He's allowed a reception once every 7.4 coverage snaps, tied for the league's eighth-highest rate.
Injury reports
Buffalo Bills |
||
| Player | Status | Replacement |
| EDGE Leonard Floyd | QUESTIONABLE | A.J. Epenesa |
| S Micah Hyde | QUESTIONABLE | Taylor Rapp |
Miami Dolphins |
||
| Player | Status | Replacement |
| C Liam Eichenberg | QUESTIONABLE | Jonotthan Harrison |
| LB Duke Riley | QUESTIONABLE | Calvin Munson |
| LB David Long Jr. | QUESTIONABLE | Channing Tindall |
| G Lester Cotton | QUESTIONABLE | Robert Jones |
| OT Austin Jackson | QUESTIONABLE | Kendall Lamm |
| OT Terron Armstead | QUESTIONABLE | Kion Smith |
| S Jevon Holland | QUESTIONABLE | Brandon Jones |
| RB De’Von Achane | QUESTIONABLE | Jeff Wilson Jr. |
| DI Zach Sieler | QUESTIONABLE | Da’Shawn Hand |
| WR Jaylen Waddle | QUESTIONABLE | Cedrick Wilson Jr. |
| RB Raheem Mostert | QUESTIONABLE | De’Von Achane |
| G Robert Hunt | QUESTIONABLE | Robert Jones |
| CB Xavien Howard | DOUBTFUL | Eli Apple |
| EDGE Bradley Chubb | OUT | Cameron Goode |
Note: Miami LB Jerome Baker (63.9 PFF grade) was designated to return from IR and will start if he is healthy. The injury report will be updated 30 minutes before kickoff.
The last time these two teams played…
• Week 4: Miami Dolphins 20, Buffalo Bills 48
• Josh Allen earned a 91.1 PFF grade, going 21-for-25 for 320 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions.
• Allen was under pressure on just eight of his 29 dropbacks.
• Stefon Diggs caught six of his seven targets for 120 yards and three touchdowns.
• Four of those receptions, including two touchdowns and 101 yards, came when he was matched up against CB Kader Kohou.
• Tua Tagovailoa earned a 59.3 PFF grade, his second-lowest of the season.
• Tagovailoa was under pressure on 13 of his 41 dropbacks and finished just 2-for-8 for 30 yards on throws under pressure.
• Tyreek Hill was held to three receptions for 58 yards on four targets, his second-lowest total of the season.
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