• Can the Steelers' screen game work in Philadelphia? Pittsburgh has been an excellent screen offense all year, but the Eagles have largely neutralized the concept.
• Will C.J. Stroud get back to deep passing success against the Dolphins? Stroud ranks 21st in deep passing grade but faces a Miami defense that has struggled on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes
While the outcome of every football game is influenced by the 22 players on each team’s side, the niche, micro-level battles add an extra layer of nuance. That includes players or units battling head-to-head, or even defensive coaches trying to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Week 14’s focus on Sam Darnold against the Falcons’ 3-seam coverage (91.9 PFF passing grade) and the Cardinals’ late-down offense (35.7% conversion rate) were significant in determining which franchises were victorious. Now, let’s turn to Week 15.
Whether strength against strength, weakness against weakness or simply an individual war of great consequence, here are six matchups with a significant probability of determining winners this week.
Bills’ extra offensive line sets vs. Lions
This article had to begin by dissecting Bills-Lions, which pits what appears to be the best team in each conference against one another. Although these two sides could feasibly square off yet again in Super Bowl 59, expect both head coaches to leave no stone unturned in a win — which means the Bills should stay true to their identity.
One of Joe Brady’s calling cards as the team's offensive coordinator is his implementation of extra offensive linemen. Buffalo has utilized six or more offensive linemen on 15.2% of snaps, easily the highest rate in the NFL. That tendency has worked well, leading the team to rank sixth in EPA per play and second in yards per play (5.5) out of Jumbo sets. What also helps is that, while the Bills lean heavily toward running out of the formation, the team has also passed on 25.6% of such snaps.
However, Aaron Glenn’s defense has been unbelievable when opposing offenses try to add extra linemen. The Lions rank first in EPA per play against such looks and have permitted a stunning 0% success rate on seven such defensive plays faced.
The simple truth is that, despite Detroit's extreme effectiveness against teams trotting out extra linemen, the sample size is incredibly limited. How well will the Lions operate against a Bills team that deploys the formation more than anyone? If Detroit’s injured defense can stand tall, then the team could reach 13 wins. If not, the Bills could secure arguably their biggest win all year.
Steelers’ screen offense vs. Eagles
The other inter-conference heavyweight collision in Week 15 is Steelers-Eagles, with both Pennsylvania teams vying to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Given that Pittsburgh is expected to be without wide receiver George Pickens for a second straight week, a little less star power will be on the field — which means the Steelers could lean into a strength.
In Arthur Smith’s first season calling the shots, Pittsburgh has gone from one of the worst screen offenses in football to one of the best. The Steelers rank third in both EPA per play and success rate when running screens after slotting 25th in EPA per play a season ago. Pittsburgh’s ability to distribute the ball to Jaylen Warren (76.1 PFF receiving grade), Najee Harris, Pat Freiermuth or even a receiver has rendered its screen game diverse and successful.
However, the Eagles' stingy defense has fared effectively against screens. Philadelphia holds the fourth-best EPA per play mark and the ninth-best success rate when opposing offenses attempt to execute a screen, allowing only 3.5 yards per play — tied for the third fewest.
Smith employed a more screen-heavy approach without Pickens against the Browns, and he’s likely to do so again in Lincoln Financial Field. Will Pittsburgh’s offense be able to move and score the ball against Philadelphia by executing screens, or will the Steelers be stuck in neutral for most of the day? If Pittsburgh’s screen game isn’t humming, then the Steelers will need their defense to dominate for this game to be close.
Packers‘ receivers vs. the Seahawks’ press coverage
You probably shouldn’t leave the couch once 4:25 p.m. ET hits, because Packers-Seahawks on Sunday Night Football is another dandy — and a potential playoff preview. It will be fascinating to watch how Green Bay’s deep passing game performs against Seattle’s press defense.
This season, Packers receivers rank third in yards per route run (4.80), fourth in yards per catch (14.6) and fourth in threat rate (57.8%) when defenses turn to press coverage looks. At the same time, Green Bay holds just the 24th-best PFF receiving grade in those situations, primarily due to a league-worst 15.3% drop rate against press. Christian Watson is the only Packers receiver ranked inside the top 50 in PFF receiving grade against press among qualified wideouts.
On the other side of the line of scrimmage, expect Seattle’s cornerbacks to jab and punch with regularity. The Seahawks have utilized press coverage on 72.3% of defensive snaps, the sixth-highest clip in the NFL, and have been strong in that area. Seattle places ninth in EPA per play, 10th in success rate and 10th in contested catch rate when turning to press coverage. Star cornerback tandem Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen each rank inside the top 20 in PFF coverage grade among cornerbacks with 100 or more press-look snaps.
Will Watson, Jayden Reed and Dontavyion Wicks be able to generate enough separation — and hold onto the ball? Or will Seattle’s defense help propel the team to a fourth straight win? Keep an eye on that receiver-cornerback matchup in this prime-time contest.
Buccaneers’ RB receiving vs. Chargers
After losing two of their past three games, the upstart Chargers head home to take on the red-hot Buccaneers, who now occupy first place in the NFC South. This is still a game with major playoff implications, and attention will naturally gravitate to a high-powered Tampa Bay offense against a stout Los Angeles defense.
The foundation of Liam Coen’s first season in Tampa Bay has been the rotation of his running backs, particularly in the passing game. The Buccaneers rank fourth in running back targets, fourth in yards per attempt (7.8) and first in EPA per play when throwing to their running backs. Bucky Irving and Rachaad White are both top-seven players in PFF receiving grade among running backs with 15 or more targets.
At the same time, Jesse Minter’s defense has been similarly excellent at limiting catches out of the backfield. The Chargers rank first in team coverage grade (85.6) and yards per completion allowed (4.76) when teams target running backs. Teams have targeted their backs against Los Angeles often — 87 times, the third most in the NFL — but only seven have resulted in explosive gains.
Will Baker Mayfield be able to comfortably swing the ball out to Irving and White, or will the Chargers force a downfield passing attack against a short-handed Buccaneers receiving room? Simply watching two mastermind coordinators — and potential head coaches in 2025 — square off will be highly enjoyable.
C.J. Stroud’s deep passing vs. Dolphins
Dolphins-Texans isn’t a game to sleep on, especially given the Texans’ offensive quandaries for most of the season. Week 15 presents a good chance for Houston to correct its frequent missteps when throwing down the field.
C.J. Stroud hasn’t blossomed into a superstar in his second year, and his deep passing ineffectiveness has been a big reason. Stroud ranks 21st out of 33 qualifiers in deep passing grade (79.8) and only 24th in deep passer rating (74.), a far cry from his almost flawless downfield throwing a season ago. Even though Nico Collins sits 20th in deep receiving grade (97.2), Stroud has thrown to him 20-plus yards downfield only 11 times — which converts to just 15.5% of his targets.
Even though Miami’s defense has made improvements in Anthony Weaver’s first season, deep coverage hasn’t been a forte. The Dolphins rank 25th in team coverage grade on passes 20 or more yards downfield and have allowed a 42.5% explosive passing rate, the fourth-worst clip in the league. Safety Jevon Holland has posted the third-worst PFF coverage grade (25.4) among all defenders with 25 or more deep coverage snaps, while Jalen Ramsey’s 28.4 deep coverage grade ranks seventh worst among qualified cornerbacks.
Can Houston’s offense finally reach its high ceiling and generate chunk plays deep down the field, or will Miami’s defense rectify its deep passing issues? If the Dolphins want to stay alive in the wild-card race, they probably won’t have much room for error in surrendering huge gains through the air.
Falcons’ rushing before vs. after contact vs. Raiders
The second portion of Monday night’s doubleheader doesn’t appear to be a scintillating game on paper, but it definitely qualifies as a must-win contest for a Falcons team that hasn’t emerged victorious since Week 9. Atlanta’s offense may find favor through the air, but the unit might not have a tremendous advantage on the ground.
The Falcons’ run game has worked all season, even during the team’s recent skid. On the year, Atlanta ranks seventh in rushing EPA per play, including ninth in average yards before and after contact. It’s worth noting that star second-year runner Bijan Robinson has been better before being contacted, tying for 12th in yards before contact per carry (1.6) as opposed to ranking 32nd in yards after contact per carry (2.99) among qualified backs.
Those splits are virtually the opposite of where the Raiders have succeeded. Las Vegas’ run defense is tied for ninth in average yards before contact per carry allowed, but the team plummets to 24th in average yards after contact.
Will Robinson get clear lanes behind his stellar offensive line, and will he break tackles even when touched? Or will the Raiders and their ninth-best team run-defense grade force Atlanta into a pass-heavy approach behind an underperforming Kirk Cousins? A more balanced approach would help Atlanta end its skid on Monday night.
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