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For the 2021 season, PFF has tasked two of its analysts to go toe-to-toe each week on PrizePicks. Their task? They have to make their favorite player prop parlay bets. The loser goes home empty-handed and will donate to the winner’s charity of choice. Records will be updated each week, with both hopefully showing how to return a profit throughout the season.
Andrew Erickson took the early-season lead in Week 1 despite getting a free pass on his Zack Moss under rushing yardage bet.
Let’s check out what both fantasy analysts like for Week 2.
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ANDREW ERICKSON
NYHEIM HINES: OVER 3 RECEPTIONS
The Indianapolis Colts are one of the few teams that will openly favor targeting running backs over any other position. Case in point, Carson Wentz tied Sam Darnold for a league-high 33% pass rate to the running back position in Week 1.
On the receiving end of six of those passes was Colts pass-catching specialist Nyheim Hines. Hines finished with eight targets, 15% of the target share. And those receptions figure to stay in place for Week 2.
The Rams’ fierce defense will force Wentz to check down early and often, and Hines will be the primary benefactor. PFF’s fantasy projections have Hines slated for 3.2 receptions in Week 2.
JOSH JACOBS: UNDER 49.5 RUSHING YARDS
Josh Jacobs made me look foolish after I labeled him a “fantasy sit” for Week 1. The third-year back totaled just 10 carries for 34 yards in a game where the Raiders ran 80 offensive plays, but he salvaged his fantasy day with two rushing scores, a feat he likely won't replicate against the vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers run defense.
It's the worst matchup for running backs in Week 2, per PFF’s strength of schedule tool. Jacobs also split snaps nearly 50-50 with Kenyan Drake, which furthers the case for taking the under on his rushing prop.
BEN BROWN
RUSSELL GAGE: UNDER 42.5 RECEIVING YARDS
It was an ugly start to the 2021 season for the Atlanta Falcons. And Gage's performance — 31 routes, two targets and zero catches — may have been the most disappointing of the contest.
The usage was present, but the fourth-year wideout is clearly the third option in the Falcons' passing offense.
PrizePicks has also slightly overpriced his receiving yardage number, with the betting market at least one yard shorter than the current offering of 42.5.
The Falcons receiver could very well struggle to separate from the Buccaneers' outside cornerbacks. However, he should run most of his routes against slot corner Ross Cockrell, likely his only positive matchup.
Our betting projections don’t anticipate Gage to take advantage of this matchup, as we show a value of 8.8% on him finishing under this receiving yardage number.
DEANDRE HOPKINS: OVER 7 RECEPTIONS
Hopkins failed to get over his Week 1 reception prop number solely because the Cardinals didn't need to throw the ball in the fourth quarter. However, the all-world wideout was still heavily involved, playing 89% of snaps and running a route on 92% of Kyler Murray‘s dropbacks.
His Week 1 performance has caused a slight discrepancy in his reception prop number, with most bookmakers adding the hook to 7 while PrizePicks offers the slightly reduced number.
Bettors expect the Vikings to keep this game close, as the spread has moved from -4.5 to -3.5 as we approach game time. If this narrative holds, Hopkins should easily eclipse his reception number, as this was the only reason why he failed to do so in Week 1. He has the second-best matchup advantage for any wide receiver in Week 2, as we project him to win numerous battles against former teammate Patrick Peterson.
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