• Xavier Worthy running into Round 1: After breaking the combine's 40-yard dash record, Worthy justifiably has moved into Round 1 consideration.

• Be careful with Jha’Quan Jackson: Despite his notable combine performance, Jackson's lack of production is still problematic.

• PFF’s 2024 NFL Draft Guide now available: Our latest draft guide is loaded with more than 600 pages of PFF-exclusive advanced stats, grades and analysis on some of the top 2024 draft prospects.

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The NFL scouting combine adds an extra layer of excitement to the draft process every year. Annually we see players go to the event and show out on the field, vaulting the consensus opinion of them among analysts, and we see players show up and struggle, be it on the field or with medicals, which prompts them to tumble down boards. Here we’re taking a look at three risers and fallers, and whether or not we’re buying or selling that direction of travel.

Risers

Buying: WR Xavier Worthy, Texas

Worthy was productive enough in college, averaging 2.21 yards per route run over his three-year career at Texas. That production is enough to warrant being drafted in the second round and if he is going to vault into Round 1 after breaking the combine record in the 40-yard dash, I have no issue with someone taking the risk that record-breaking speed is worth drafting a little early.

Buying: RB Isaac Guerendo, Louisville

Another 40-yard dash standout, Guerendo had a really nice year in 2023 too. He earned a 90.3 PFF rushing grade last season after averaging 6.1 yards per carry and averaged 1.70 yards per route run as a receiver. He ticks boxes for athleticism and 2023 production, and he wasn’t overworked in college, as he totaled just 231 carries at Wisconsin and Louisville.

Selling: WR Jha’Quan Jackson, Tulane

Jackson is undersized, but we’ve seen players as recently as Tank Dell a year ago manage to make an impact in the NFL despite that. However he never once had more than 32 receptions in a single season at Tulane so the lack of overall production scares me more than the 4.42-second 40-yard dash excites me.

Fallers

Buying: CB Kalen King, Penn State

Kalen King’s 2022 season at Penn State was so good that he entered the season as a potential top-10 pick. His 2023 season and subsequent pre-draft process have not been anywhere close to that player though, as King earned a 55.7 PFF coverage grade last season. The combine was his chance to redeem himself and, while it wasn’t a terrible showing overall, he looks to be just OK as an athlete, which is hard to get past given his 2023 season. All that being said, his stock falling as much as it has will lead to a team getting a steal if he can recapture his 2022 form in the NFL.

Buying: RB Audric Estime, Notre Dame

Estime produced a 94.0 PFF rushing grade in 2023 thanks to averaging 4.27 yards after contact per carry and forcing 64 missed tackles. He’s a power back, so testing well in terms of explosiveness was good, but a 4.71-second 40-yard dash time will be tough for a lot of teams to overcome. He might wind up being a steal in the NFL because of it, but it’s tough to see him being a Day-2 selection at this point.

Selling: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

A 4.61-second in the 40-yard dash would have been a tough thing for Coleman to overcome as a prospect in the past, but in 2024, we have new data points that add more context, and they could just stop him falling despite the slow time. While that 40-yard dash time was slow, he had the top speed in the gauntlet drill, showing that his speed in situations more similar to a game is there to see. Coleman is big at 6-foot-4, almost certainly faster than his timed speed in the 40-yard dash and dropped just five of the 120 catchable passes thrown his way in college. I don’t think he’ll fall much, if at all, because of this.

Keon Coleman propaganda:

Play speed vs timed speed:

Coleman ran 4.6, Franklin 4.4, but Coleman was averaging like 5mph more on the gauntlet run. pic.twitter.com/SKgO9q4oWU

— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) March 2, 2024