College Football Week 12 Preview: Storylines, matchups and predictions for the six biggest games

• No. 5 Washington-No. 11 Oregon State: The undefeated Huskies are underdogs for the first time this season as they travel to Corvallis.

• No. 1 Georgia-No. 18 Tennessee: The defending back-to-back champs will try to beat their third top-25 opponent in as many weeks.

• No. 22 Utah-No. 17 Arizona: The Wildcats are looking to keep their hot streak alive at home against the Utes.

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Only two weeks remain in the 2023 college football regular season, and the pool of College Football Playoff contenders has been whittled down to essentially nine.

Four of those contenders are embroiled in big matchups this week that should provide an even clearer picture of what the final four could look like. Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch and predictions for the six biggest games of Week 12.

NO. 10 LOUISVILLE CARDINALS AT MIAMI (FL) HURRICANES (12 P.M. EST ON ABC)

Storyline to know: Can Louisville clinch a spot in the ACC Championship game?

Louisville has been college football’s Cinderella story this season. After starting the season unranked, the Cardinals now place 10th with a 9-1 record in Jeff Brohm’s first year at the helm.

With a win Saturday, Louisville will clinch a spot in the ACC Championship game for the first time in program history. A victory will also keep the Cardinals’ playoff chances, albeit slim, alive. It won’t come easy, though, as Louisville is just one-point favorites on the road against a Miami (FL) team that just went down toe to toe with No. 4 Florida State.

Matchup to watch: How does Tyler Van Dyke respond to being benched?

Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke was showing in the first half of the season why he was once a projected first-round pick. However, he’s taken a complete nosedive in the past three weeks.

Tyler Van Dyke in 2023 | Among FBS QBs

It culminated in his benching this past weekend against Florida State in favor of true freshman Emory Williams. But with Williams suffering a season-ending arm injury, Van Dyke is back in the lineup. Louisville isn’t exactly a good “get-right” team to face, either. The Cardinals rank sixth in the nation in expected points allowed per play this season.

Prediction: Louisville 27, Miami (FL) 23

Louisville takes down Miami on the road and clinches a spot in the ACC title game for the first time, setting up a matchup with Florida State.

NO. 22 UTAH UTES AT NO. 17 ARIZONA WILDCATS (2:30 P.M. EST ON PAC-12 NETWORK)

Storyline to know: Can Arizona keep this hot streak going?

Arizona has been on fire as of late, winning four straight games, including three over ranked opponents — No. 19 Washington State, No. 11 Oregon State and No. 19 UCLA. In the two weeks before that, the Wildcats lost to No. 7 Washington and No. 9 USC by a combined nine points.

They’ll try to keep the good times rolling against a Utah team that has lost two of its past three. Granted, those defeats came at the hands of College Football Playoff contenders in Oregon and Washington.

Matchup to watch: Jonah Elliss against Jordan Morgan

Elliss has been a one-man wrecking crew for the Utes, as his 13 sacks pace all Power Five edge defenders this season. After starting the campaign as a relative unknown, he is now a top-50 prospect on PFF’s 2024 NFL Draft big board.

Another top-50 prospect is Arizona left tackle Jordan Morgan, who will be matching up with Elliss for most of this game. His 82.6 overall grade and 89.4 pass-blocking grade both rank fifth among all FBS tackles.

This is a must-see one-on-one matchup this weekend, especially for those who are fans of the NFL draft.

Prediction: Arizona 24, Utah 21

The Wildcats beat their fourth top-25 opponent in their past five games.

NO. 1 GEORGIA BULLDOGS AT NO. 18 TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (3:30 P.M. EST ON CBS)

Storyline to know: Can Georgia get through this brutal stretch unscathed?

This is the third straight week that the Bulldogs are facing a top-25 team. Georgia beat No. 12 Missouri by nine points two weeks ago and annihilated No. 9 Ole Miss this past weekend by 35 points.

Both of those games were in Athens, though. The defending back-to-back national champions must go into a hostile environment in Knoxville to preserve their perfect season this week.

Matchup to watch: James Pearce Jr. vs. Amarius Mims

Pearce is one of the best pass-rushers in college football this season. The true sophomore ranks third among FBS edge defenders in pass-rushing grade (91.6), third in pass-rush win rate (22.8%) and fifth in pressure rate (21.3%). Pearce is staking his claim as one of the early top prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft.

He most often lines up against the right tackle, meaning he’ll have plenty of repetitions against Georgia’s Amarius Mims. The junior missed six games this season due to ankle surgery but returned last weekend for Georgia’s win over Ole Miss. On 107 pass-blocking snaps this season, Mims hasn’t allowed a sack and has surrendered only one pressure. He is currently a first-round prospect on PFF’s 2024 NFL Draft big board.

Prediction: Georgia 41, Tennessee 17

For the second straight week, Georgia manhandles a top-25 opponent.

NO. 21 KANSAS STATE WILDCATS AT NO. 25 KANSAS JAYHAWKS (7 P.M. EST ON FS1)

Storyline to know: One of the biggest games in the Sunflower Showdown’s history

Kansas State and Kansas have met in every season since 1911, making it the fourth-longest uninterrupted rivalry in the FBS.

Longest Uninterrupted Rivalries in the FBS

*Bedlam is ending after this season with Oklahoma leaving the Big 12 for the SEC

This year’s Sunflower Showdown is one of historical significance. This is only the second time in 121 meetings that Kansas State and Kansas are both ranked when they match up, with the only other instance occurring in 1995.

Matchup to watch: Will Jason Bean be able to play?

Kansas’ chances in this game could ultimately hinge on Jason Bean’s availability. He suffered a head injury in the second quarter against Texas Tech and did not return, which ultimately resulted in a Jayhawks’ loss. With starter Jalon Daniels missing seven games this year due to back tightness, Kansas turned to true freshman walk-on Cole Ballard, who posted a 54.5 passing grade in the loss.

The good news for the Jayhawks is that head coach Lance Leipold is “very optimistic” Bean will be able to go Saturday against Kansas State.

Prediction: Kansas State 34, Kansas 27

Even if Bean plays, Kansas State pulls off the road victory.

NO. 5 WASHINGTON HUSKIES AT NO. 11 OREGON STATE BEAVERS (7:30 P.M. EST ON ABC)

Storyline to know: Is this finally the week that Washington goes down?

Washington has won its past six games by an average of just seven points after winning their first four by an average of 33 points.

The Huskies head to Corvallis this week to take on Oregon State, and for the first time this season, they enter the game as underdogs (2.5 points).

Matchup to watch: Two contrasting offenses

Besides having home-field advantage, Oregon State is favored over Washington because of their physicality on offense. The Beavers lead the nation in run-blocking grade (84.4) and rank 10th in the Power Five in yards before contact per attempt (2.5 yards). Washington’s defense, meanwhile, is just 73rd in team run-defense grade this season.

Washington’s bread and butter offensively is its passing game, led by a Heisman candidate at quarterback in Michael Penix Jr. and the highest-graded receiving corps in the country (87.2). Oregon State fields the 18th-best defense in the country in terms of how often it allows 15-plus-yard passes (11.6%). However, the Beavers haven’t faced an offense even comparable to Washington’s this season.

Prediction: Washington 34, Oregon State 31

Washington pulls off the victory as an underdog and keeps its undefeated season alive.

NO. 7 TEXAS LONGHORNS AT IOWA STATE CYCLONES (8 P.M. EST ON FOX)

Storyline to know: What does Texas’ offense look like without its superstar?

Right when Texas returned starting quarterback Quinn Ewers from his shoulder injury, the Longhorns suffered another devastating blow to their offense. Star running back Jonathon Brooks tore his ACL against TCU and will miss the remainder of the season. Before he went down, the redshirt sophomore was PFF’s top running back prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft.

True freshman CJ Baxter, the top running back recruit in the 2023 class, will start in his absence.

Matchup to watch: Can Quinn Ewers step up?

With Brooks out, there’s even more pressure on Ewers to carry this offense. The redshirt sophomore has improved his grade to 81.1 from 72.4 a year ago, but he’ll likely need to take his game to another level without Brooks. Luckily for Ewers, Texas' receiving corps is one of college football's best, as is the offensive line protecting him.

Iowa State’s defense has just the 113th-best pass-rushing grade in the country this season, so it’s unlikely they’ll be able to get home on Ewers often. Where the Cyclones do excel is in coverage, posting the ninth-best coverage grade in the FBS (91.3).

Prediction: Texas 28, Iowa State 20

Ewers does just enough without Brooks and Texas keeps its playoff aspirations alive.