I’ve been putting together notes for every game that Judah Fortgang and I touch on during the betting episode of the PFF NFL Show each week, and I’ve since extended that to game-by-game betting notes for the full slate of Sunday games.
The idea is to put my research and thoughts onto paper in a quick-hitting, bulleted format to help myself work through what bets I want to place each week. Hopefully, you’re able to get similar value from this article as you work through your decision-making process.
Each game will include data-driven and contextual notes for both sides of the ball with an “Angles I Like” summary at the end, which quickly summarizes how I’m most likely to bet the game from a spreads, totals and player props perspective.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (CHARGERS -4.5, 43.5 TOTAL)
- The Patriots have blitzed on 37% of their pass-defense snaps this season (sixth-highest rate in NFL), but they’re still a bottom-five defense in pressure rate.
- A team that blitzes often without generating pressure tends to be a good matchup for most quarterbacks, but that’s particularly true for Justin Herbert, who has excelled both against the blitz and from a clean pocket.
- Justin Herbert PFF passing grades | 2024 season
- Vs. Blitz: 83.1 (2nd)
- From Clean Pocket: 92.0 (3rd)
- Justin Herbert PFF passing grades | 2024 season
- The Chargers have continued to be a pass-heavy team since their early-season bye. Assuming the game remains competitive, this is a good spot to attack Herbert's passing overs/alts.
- A team that blitzes often without generating pressure tends to be a good matchup for most quarterbacks, but that’s particularly true for Justin Herbert, who has excelled both against the blitz and from a clean pocket.
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