Island games are the highlight of any NFL week for betting enthusiasts. And as the industry continues to grow, some of the most discussed moments belong to these single-game opportunities.
We came close in Week 14, falling only 12 Justin Jefferson receiving yards shy of an overwhelmingly positive week, but finished 5-11 for -6.87 units. Our year-to-date record moves to 102-133 for -3.86 units.
It's the first time this season that we'll start Thursday Night Football in the red, so it's time to bounce back big. Leverage PFF's predictive betting models and player props tool to identify the best betting opportunities in the Kansas City Chiefs–Los Angeles Chargers Week 15 Thursday Night Football contest.
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PLAYER PROPS
One of the easiest transitions into sports betting is through player props, as fantasy applications help evaluate betting opportunities.
Props are priced for a player's median stat projection in a simple, over-or-under, two-sided market. For historical context, we saw 53% of player props hit the under, regardless of the category, during the 2020 season.
Players are finishing under their posted total at a much higher rate than last season. It has been one-sided for player prop unders overall this year, so you are swimming upstream if you're trying to bet overs in this market. At this point in the season, the path of least resistance is to sweat out some unders, even if it feels uncomfortable at times.
Receiving and passing yardage unders remain the best props to target. And because target share is somewhat consistent but more difficult to predict than rushing-attempt share, reception totals are also a worthwhile betting category.
For bettors looking to target overs, rushing attempts and combined rushing and receiving yardage numbers present the best opportunities, as do the over-one-interception lines for some quarterbacks.
The best way to quantify an edge is utilizing PFF's best bets tool, as the ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for the NFL Thursday night game.
WR TYREEK HILL: Over 6.5 receptions (-130)
Hill has struggled by his lofty standards over the last five games. The NFL’s premier deep threat, Hill has failed to record a PFF receiving grade over 80.0 over that stretch at just 5.2 receptions and 59 yards per game, going scoreless in four of those five games.
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