Island games are the highlight of any NFL week for betting enthusiasts. And as the industry continues to grow, some of the most discussed moments belong to these single-game opportunities.
Leverage PFF's predictive betting models and player props tools to identify the best betting opportunities in the Week 13 Monday Night Football contest between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills.
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PLAYER PROPS
One of the easiest transitions into sports betting is through player props, as fantasy applications help evaluate betting opportunities.
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing PFF's player props tool, as the ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for Monday Night Football.
QB MAC JONES: OVER 207.5 PASSING YARDS (-105)
Two key factors point to Jones covering his passing yardage prop on Monday: the game script and the great recent play of Jones himself.
The 2021 first-round pick has emerged as the heavy favorite for the Rookie of the Year Award (-300 on Draftkings Sportsbook), and rightfully so. His 81.9 PFF passing grade easily leads all rookie quarterbacks, and he actually leads all qualified quarterbacks — not just rookies — in passing grade since Week 5.
Given that the Patriots are three-point road underdogs, it’s likely that Jones & Co. will be trailing in the second half of this game. And between that and the fact that the Bills have one of the most explosive passing attacks in the NFL, it’s almost a given that New England will go to a throw-heavy scheme in the second half, which should be enough for Jones to get the attempt volume to cover this prop.
Coming off a 310-yard performance last week, Jones has a 53.9% chance to cover this prop and throw for at least 208 passing yards, according to PFF’s player props tool.
QB MAC JONES: UNDER 19.5 COMPLETIONS (-104)
This game total continues to drop because of the expected poor weather, as the opening of 44.5 dropped three points down to 41.5. The weather concerns have also trickled over into the prop market, with Mac Jones seeing his lowest passing yardage prop by 15 yards. His completion number also dropped slightly but is only two lower than his Week 12 number.
If the weather fulfills the current expectation, we should be dealing with temperatures below freezing, snow showers and winds up to 20 m.p.h, which does not sound like a recipe for passing-game success — especially for a rookie signal-caller facing off against a top-five defensive unit.
Jones hasn’t exactly exceeded betting market expectations in this prop category previously, sitting with a .500 record so far in 2021. He is below league-average in average depth of target (aDOT), and despite being the best rookie quarterback in 2021, he still sits outside the top 10 in PFF’s accuracy metric this season.
Everything points toward a ground-and-pound attack on Monday night, which should result in an easy victory on Jones’ under completion number. This looks like a spot to buy in early if weather concerns come close to meeting current expectations.
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