Fantasy Football: QB matchups, streamer of the week, Week 17 rankings and more

• QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions: Dallas and Detroit’s efficient offenses create a fantasy-friendly environment for Prescott.

• QB Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Seattle Seahawks: Rudolph cannot be trusted to return QB1 value for the second straight week, facing Seattle’s top-tier pass defense.

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Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes

NFL Week 17 action is here. For fantasy football managers who passed on the elite quarterback tier, start-and-sit decisions must now be made. Below are two quarterbacks with advantageous matchups to target, two quarterbacks with difficult matchups to avoid and one streaming option possessing a top-12 finish in their range of outcomes.

QB Matchups to Target

QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions

Prescott moderately disappointed last week, tying for a QB9 finish in fantasy scoring (18.6 points), but Week 17 returns him to the elite tier in an indoor matchup against Detroit’s efficient offense and pushover defense. Prescott’s third-ranked 88.0 PFF passing grade (ranked among 46 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks) accurately reflects his Week 17 fantasy-scoring prospects.

The game’s 53.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 17’s highest game total. FanDuel implies Dallas will score 29.75 points. The two potent offenses and beatable defenses create a fantasy-friendly environment.

The table below ranks in parentheses Dallas' and Detroit’s offensive and defensive data among NFL teams.

Among 46 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, Prescott ranks in the top 10 in both yards per passing attempt (7.5) and adjusted completion rate (76.9%). His 6.2% big-time-throw rate and 1.9% turnover-worthy play rate both rank fourth.

Prescott recommitted to running the ball over the past four weeks, averaging five rushing attempts and 21.75 rushing yards per game during that span. Detroit defends against rushing quarterbacks particularly poorly, ranking 25th in success rate allowed (37.2%) and 23rd in expected points allowed per play (-0.119).

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Cowboys No. 1 wide receiver CeeDee Lamb a good 85.0 receiving matchup rating against Detroit’s cornerback corps, Week 17’s seventh-best mark. Cowboys No. 2 wide receiver Brandin Cooks is projected to face perimeter cornerback Khalil Dorsey on 12 of 34 receiving snaps, giving Cooks a good 74.3 receiving matchup rating.

PFF’s TE matchup chart gives tight end Jake Ferguson a 20.0% receiving matchup advantage rating over Detroit linebacker Alex Anzalone, tying for Week 17’s eighth-best mark.

Prescott is an elite QB1.

QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles

Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray’s 58.7 PFF passing grade ranks 37th among 46 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, but his 82.7 PFF rushing grade ranks sixth among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 rushing attempts. Murray’s fantasy performances largely hover around the low-end QB1-to-high-end QB2 range, including three finishes between QB10 and QB14, two at QB19 and one at QB6. His Week 17 matchup against Philadelphia provides him a soft path to season-best results, particularly via his elite rushing ability, though Philadlephia’s vulnerable secondary should facilitate explosive pass plays.

The game’s 48.0-point FanDuel over/under is Week 17’s third-highest total. Arizona is a 10.5-point road underdog, signaling a high dropback volume for Murray. Among 31 NFL quarterbacks with at least 10 scrambles, Murray’s 90.1 PFF rushing grade on scrambles and 9.0 yards per scramble tie for and rank second, respectively.

Among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 rushing attempts, Murray ties for 11th in missed tackles forced (0.16) and 10th in first-down-plus-touchdown rate (37.5%) and ranks sixth in explosive run play rate (21.9%) and fifth in yards per rushing attempt (5.6).

Among 15 NFL quarterbacks with at least five green-zone rushing attempts, Murray’s 60.0% first-downs-gained and touchdowns scored rate ranks fifth.

Philadelphia’s run defense struggles to contain mobile quarterbacks. The unit ranks 26th in success rate allowed (37.5%) and dead last in both EPA allowed per play (0.409) and positively graded run-play rate (6.3%). The Eagles will likely be without starting linebackers Nakobe Dean (injured reserve) and Zach Cunningham (multi-week knee injury). Among 101 NFL linebackers with at least 45 run-defense snaps, Dean’s 80.2 PFF run-defense grade ranks 15th and Cunningham’s 68.9 PFF run-defense grade ranks 50th. Safety Justin Evans is on injured reserve, and his 67.0 PFF run-defense grade ranks 10th among 20 Philadelphia defenders with at least 175 defensive snaps.

Philadelphia’s pass defense places 18th in success rate allowed (45.5%), 22nd in EPA allowed per play (0.027) and 20th in explosive pass plays allowed rate (14.1%). Philadelphia’s secondary has a chance to return slot cornerback Avonte Maddox (pectoral) from injured reserve, whose 56.2 PFF slot coverage grade ranks 41st among 57 cornerbacks with at least 55 slot coverage snaps. The unit will likely be missing No. 1 cornerback Darius Slay (multi-week knee injury) and safety Justin Evans (injured reserve). Slay’s 70.5 PFF perimeter coverage grade ties for 25th among 64 cornerbacks with at least 270 perimeter coverage snaps.

PFF’s TE matchup chart gives Murray’s No. 1 pass catcher, tight end Trey McBride, a 20.0% receiving matchup advantage rating over Eagles linebacker Shaquille Leonard, tying for Week 17’s eighth-best mark.

FanDuel users should consider stacking Murray and McBride in both cash games and GPP tournaments.

Murray is a mid-tier QB1.

QB Matchups to Avoid

QB Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Seattle Seahawks

Rudolph’s 20.0 Week 16 fantasy points earned him a QB12 finish, but he is unlikely to return top-12 value against Seattle’s stout defense in Week 17.

FanDuel implies Pittsburgh will score just 19.0 points.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Pittsburgh a -37.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, tying for Week 17’s fifth-worst mark. Seattle’s defense ranks in the top 12 in both quarterback pressure rate (35.9%) and NFL sacks (40.5).

Seattle’s pass defense limits opposing passing games to a 12.4% explosive pass plays allowed rate, the 11th-lowest figure among NFL teams, and spectacularly defends the splash zone, ranking in the top six in both yards allowed per splash-zone coverage snap (9.65) and explosive pass plays allowed in splash-zone coverage rate (31.8%). The term “splash zone” denotes the area of the field found between the painted numbers, at least 10 yards downfield. Targets thrown in this region yield more fantasy points than those thrown at an equivalent depth along the sidelines.

Seattle’s deep secondary currently features Nos. 1 and 2 perimeter cornerbacks Tariq Woolen and Michael Jackson, sidekicked by fill-in slot cornerback Artie Burns. Woolen's and Jackson’s respective 71.2 and 83.6 PFF perimeter-coverage grades both rank in the top 25 among 77 cornerbacks with at least 215 perimeter coverage snaps, and Burns’ 63.5 PFF slot coverage grade ranks 23rd among 37 cornerbacks with at least 135 slot coverage snaps.

Rudolph played turnover-free football last week, but his 3.3% turnover-worthy play rate ranks 24th among 37 Week 17 NFL quarterbacks and his 68.0% adjusted completion rate places 29th.

Rudolph should not be trusted to return QB1 value in 12-team fantasy football leagues.

QB Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Indianapolis quarterback Gardner Minshew faces Las Vegas’ inspired, Antonio Pierce-led defense in Week 17, removing him from “Streamer of the Week” consideration. Among 46 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, Minshew’s 59.1 PFF passing grade ranks 36th.

The game offers a mid-tier 43.5-point FanDuel over/under.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Indianapolis a -9.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating against the Raiders, whose pass rush is efficiently stacking sacks under Pierce. Among NFL teams from Weeks 9-16, the unit ties for 18th in quarterback pressure rate (35.5%) but fourth in NFL sacks (23.0).

Las Vegas’ coverage unit has kept pace with the pass rush, ranking 11th in yards allowed per coverage snap (5.65) and fourth in explosive pass plays allowed rate (10.4%) during that span. PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Colts No. 1 wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. the only above-average receiving matchup advantage rating on the team in Week 17, though his 66.1 rating hardly impresses.

Among 46 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, Minshew ranks tied for 40th in big-time-throw rate (2.6%), 39th in turnover-worthy play rate (4.2%), 29th in yards per passing attempt (6.6) and 24th in adjusted completion rate (74.0%).

Minshew is just a mid-tier QB2.

Streamer of the Week

QB Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New Orleans quarterback Derek Carr is Week 17’s QB1 streamer of the week, thanks to defensive injuries suffered by both New Orleans and Tampa Bay, plus coverage vulnerabilities presented by Tampa Bay’s blitz-heavy scheme.

The game’s modest 42.5-point FanDuel over/under fails to capture its fantasy-scoring potential.

Tampa Bay’s pass defense may be without No. 1 edge rusher Shaquil Barrett (groin strain) and No. 2 cornerback Carlton Davis III (concussion). Barrett’s 84.3 PFF pass-rush grade ranks 12th among 64 NFL edge rushers with at least 260 pass-rushing snaps, and Barrett is the only qualifying Buccaneers edge rusher with a PFF pass-rush grade above 63.0. Davis’ 54.6 PFF coverage grade ranks third among Tampa Bay cornerbacks with at least 100 coverage snaps.

New Orleans No. 1 cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who typically shadows Tampa Bay No. 1 wide receiver Mike Evans, and strong safety Marcus Maye are both on injured reserve. Saints Nos. 3 and 4 safeties Jordan Howden (illness, 65.0 PFF coverage grade) and Lonnie Johnson Jr. (knee injury, 61.6 PFF coverage grade) both didn't practice on Wednesday.

Among 65 NFL cornerbacks with at least 360 coverage snaps, Lattimore’s 69.1 PFF coverage grade ranks 29th, and Evans’ 85.6 PFF receiving grade ranks seventh among 33 NFL wide receivers with at least 470 receiving snaps. Maye’s 56.1 PFF coverage grade ranks third among New Orleans safeties with at least 100 coverage snaps.

New Orleans’ defensive injury issues increase Tampa Bay’s ability to push New Orleans’ pace offensively.

Tampa Bay’s pass rush hugely depends on linebackers Devin White (2.5 NFL sacks) and Lavonte David (4.5 NFL sacks) and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (5.0 NFL sacks). The latter two players rank in the top three in NFL sacks via the blitz, among 35 linebackers, cornerbacks and safeties with at least 55 blitzing pass-rush snaps. The trio accounts for 12 (27.9%) of Tampa Bay’s 43 sacks.

Winfield’s 92.8 PFF pass-rush grade on blitzes ranks first among qualifying aforementioned NFL defenders, and he is the only Tampa secondary defender (85.3 PFF coverage grade) with a PFF coverage grade above 69.0. Pulling Winfield out of coverage directly contributes to Tampa Bay’s blitz-based coverage lapses. Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 25th or worse in EPA allowed per play (0.076) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (16.95).

The pass defense also crucially struggles to cover the splash zone. Tampa Bay’s splash-zone coverage unit ranks 25th or worse in success rate allowed (61.3%), EPA allowed per play (0.693), catch rate allowed (62.7%) and yards allowed per coverage snap (13.43). Their 52.0% explosive pass plays allowed rate ranks dead last.

Among 38 NFL quarterbacks with at least 55 blitzed dropbacks, Carr places 13th in big-time-throw rate (5.1%) and 11th in yards per passing attempt (7.5).

Among 30 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 splash-zone passing attempts, Carr ranks 10th in yards per passing attempt (13.1) and adjusted completion rate (65.5%) and third in turnover-worthy play rate (1.8%).

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives New Orleans No. 1 wide receiver Chris Olave an 85.9 receiving matchup advantage rating against Tampa Bay’s cornerback corps, Week 17’s fourth-best mark.

Carr is the Week 17 streamer of the week.