NFL Week 18 DFS Cheat Sheet: 5 recommended plays for all contests

• QB Justin Fields, Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers: Fields will trample Green Bay’s injury-weakened defense.

• QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears: Love controls Green Bay’s NFL playoff hopes. 

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Estimated Reading Time: 11 minutes

Daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups require smart matchups analysis and rostership leverage opportunities to succeed. The analysis below details five fantasy assets capable of gaining significant leverage on the field. 

QB Justin Fields, Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers – FanDuel Salary: $8,400

This Week 18 NFC North showdown features prominently in this article. PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart, WR/CB matchup chart and TE matchup chart can be used to further identify players with above-average matchups who should be team- and game-stacked with Chicago and Green Bay’s respective quarterbacks but recommended stacking partners are provided. 

Chicago is eliminated from NFL playoff contention but will play to prevent Green Bay from reaching the NFL playoffs by playing their available starters. Chicago hopes to reclaim historical bragging rights after a near-five-year winless slump against their division rival and further evaluate quarterback Justin Fields, whose 76.0 PFF offense grade ranks No. 20 among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 420 offensive snaps. A Chicago win would be a historic event. This is just the second time since 1920 that Green Bay plays host to Chicago in the season’s final week.

Fields is an elite QB1 possessing a dual-threat upside whose prospects are enhanced by Green Bay’s injury-weakened run defense and permissive coverage unit. Fields’ $8,400 FanDuel salary is $1,100 short of the positional maximum, making for convenient roster building in cash games and GPP tournaments. 

The game’s 45.0-point FanDuel over/under is Week 18’s sixth-highest. FanDuel implies Chicago will score 21.0 points as 3.0-point road underdogs.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Chicago an 8.0% run-blocking matchup advantage rating and a -23.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating but are subject to change, pending Green Bay edge rusher Preston Smith’s (ankle sprain) and rotational safety Rudy Ford’s (hamstring strain) health. Among 63 NFL edge rushers with at least 275 pass-rushing snaps, Smith’s 68.1 PFF pass-rush grade ranks No. 37 and his 8.0 NFL sacks tie for No. 28. Fields notably improved on his poor sack evasion, producing a career-best 18.3% pressure-to-sack rate, ranking No. 17 among 30 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 pressured dropbacks.

Smith (74.0 PFF run-defense grade) is also Green Bay’s second-highest graded run defender among Green Bay defenders with at least 100 run-defense snaps. He (3.0%) and Ford (5.3%, 60.8 PFF run-defense grade) rank Nos. 1 and 3, respectively, in missed tackle rate. Their absences would open rushing lanes for Fields, whose 85.4 PFF rushing grade ranks No. 3 among 12 NFL quarterbacks with at least 50 rushing attempts. Fields likewise ranks top three in yards per rushing attempt (5.3), missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.21), yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.2) and explosive rushing plays (26).

Green Bay’s 61.1 PFF run-defense grade ranks No. 20 among NFL teams. Their 39.2% rushing success rate allowed ranks No. 21 and their 4.19-yard average depth of tackle ranks No. 22. Should Smith and/or Ford miss the game, their absences would exacerbate the defense’s inability to consistently tackle. Green Bay’s 72 missed tackles in run defense are the 10th-most in the NFL. 

Chicago may field a shallow pass-catching corps but Fields will have little issue carving up Green Bay’s shaky secondary with No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Moore (ankle sprain) ready to play. Moore’s 88.1 receiving matchup advantage rating against Green Bay is Week 18’s fourth-best. Green Bay No. 1 cornerback Jaire Alexander‘s 68.5 PFF coverage grade is the worst of his six-year career and is his first time falling below 73.0.

Cousins, DeVito, Herbert, Mayfield, and Bryce Young all had their highest PFF grade against the Packers

— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) January 3, 2024

Fields’ 67.6 PFF passing grade ranks No. 23 among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks. His 5.5% big-time-throw rate ranks No. 10 and his 8.8-yard average depth of target ranks No. 8.

Moore’s No. 2-ranked 47.4% deep-target rate on splash zone targets (ranked among 42 NFL wide receivers with at least 15 splash zone targets) signals incoming explosive pass plays against Green Bay’s poor splash zone coverage unit. The term splash zone denotes the area of the field found between the painted numbers, at least 10 yards downfield. Targets thrown in this region yield more fantasy points than those thrown at an equivalent depth along the sidelines.

Green Bay’s splash zone coverage unit ranks No. 24 or worse in success rate allowed (58.9%), expected points added (EPA) per play (0.758) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (45.2%).

Fields is an elite QB1 who can be team-stacked with Moore and game-stacked with Green Bay players discussed in the sections below.

QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears – FanDuel Salary: $7,800

Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love produced overall QB3 results against Chicago in Week 1, attempting 27 passes on 30 dropbacks while tacking on three rushing attempts that showcased his dual-threat abilities. Head coach Matt LaFleur will once again lean on Love in Green Bay’s near-guaranteed win-and-in NFL playoff pursuit. Love’s 82.3 PFF offense grade ranks No. 13 among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 420 offensive snaps. Love is an elite QB1 overflowing with team- and game-stacking options. 

Love’s highly affordable $7,800 FanDuel salary is $1,700 short of the positional maximum, allowing for low-cost team- and game-stack options reinforced by chalky players elsewhere.

FanDule implies Green Bay will score 24.0 points as 3.0-point home favorites.

Green Bay’s offense ranks top 10 in success rate (44.2%), EPA per play (0.056) and explosive pass plays rate (14.2%).

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Green Bay a 33.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 18’s second-best.

Love’s 80.1 PFF passing grade ranks No. 13 among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks, as does his 40.9% past-the-sticks throwing rate. He ranks No. 14 in average time to throw (2.72 seconds), No. 12 in NFL passer rating (94.4), No. 11 in big-time-throw rate (5.4%), No. 9 in turnover-worthy play rate (2.4%) and No. 3 in aDot (9.1). 

Chicago’s talented safeties and linebackers form the NFL’s best tight end-coverage unit, which should push Love’s focus to his wide receiver corps. Chicago’s 84.6 PFF tight end-coverage grade ranks No. 1 among NFL teams, although Green Bay’s tight ends can be considered as contrarian DFS options. 

Chicago No. 1 cornerback Jaylon Johnson largely lines up on the perimeter and is frequently tasked with covering the opposition’s downfield wide receiver. Johnson’s 91.0 PFF perimeter-coverage grade ranks No. 1 among 64 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 285 perimeter-coverage snaps. Green Bay’s No. 1 wide receiver Christian Watson’s 16.7-yard average depth of target (aDot) ranks No. 6 among 92 NFL wide receivers with at least 270 receiving snaps, ensuring a high-repetition matchup for the two players, should Watson play through his hamstring strain.

Green Bay’s wide receiver and running back corps’ target-earning ability:

Reed’s Week 18 prospects will be explored further in the section below, but FanDuel users should form team-stack cores with Love and Reed, akin to Fields and Moore, mentioned above. 

Melton makes for a high-leverage GPP tournament play while Wicks’ splash zone role provides quietly excellent access to both explosive gains and long touchdowns. Among 70 NFL wide receivers with at least 10 splash zone targets, Wicks’ 92.2 PFF receiving grade ties for No. 13 and his 17.75 yards per route run ranks No. 2. Chicago’s No. 2 perimeter cornerback Tyrique Stevenson offers minimal coverage resistance. His 58.3 PFF perimeter-coverage grade ranks No. 46 among qualifying NFL perimeter cornerbacks. 

Love’s 5.5 yards per rushing attempt ranks No. 2 among 13 NFL quarterbacks with at least 45 rushing attempts. His 9.5 yards per scramble ranks No. 1 among 19 NFL quarterbacks with at least 20 scrambling attempts. 

Love is an elite QB1 overflowing with team- and game-stacking options.

WR Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears – FanDuel Salary: $7,100

As detailed above, Green Bay slot receiver Jayden Reed has an excellent Week 18 game environment. Reed’s 75.0 PFF offense grade ranks No. 29 among 77 NFL wide receivers with at least 515 offensive snaps. He has a winnable matchup against Chicago slot cornerback Kyler Gordon, whose 70.6 PFF slot-coverage grade ties for No. 11 among 32 NFL slot cornerbacks with at least 185 slot-coverage snaps. 

Reed’s $7,100 FanDuel salary is $2,900 short of the positional maximum, allowing for affordable, contrarian WR1 employment, plus convenient WR2 usage.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart projects Reed to face Gordon on 19-of-25 receiving snaps. Reed should also take single-digit perimeter snaps against Green Bay’s permissive No. 2 cornerback Tyrique Stevenson, mentioned in the section above. Stevenson’s 1.51 yards allowed per coverage snap rank No. 57 among qualifying perimeter cornerbacks. 

Among qualifying NFL slot cornerbacks, Gordon ranks No. 18 in forced incompletion rate (8.0%), No. 17 in targeted rate (15.8%), No. 16 in open-target rate (62.0%) and No. 15 in catch rate allowed (70.0%). 

Gordon’s coverage vulnerabilities are too large to hold up against the speedy, shifty Reed. Among 33 NFL slot receivers with at least 190 slot-receiving snaps, Reed ranks No. 13 in yards after the catch per reception (4.8), No. 8 in target rate (23.0%), No. 7 in YPRR (2.03) and ties for No. 4 in explosive pass plays (13). 

Reed’s 56 first-read targets rank No. 2 among Green Bay pass catchers and his 12 splash zone targets tie for No. 2. Among 70 NFL wide receivers with at least 10 splash zone targets, Reed’s 6.0 yards after the catch per reception tie for No. 20 and he’s generated explosive gains on five-of-seven such receptions.

Chicago’s tight end-coverage specialist, strong safety Jaquan Brisker occasionally gets caught in slot receiver coverage. He helpfully allows 1.41 yards per coverage snap and a 2.4% explosive pass play rate in such instances. Brisker’s 70.3 PFF slot-coverage grade ranks No. 14 among 52 NFL safeties with at least 70 slot-coverage snaps. 

Reed should be team-stacked with Love and both team- and game-stacked with remaining relevant Green Bay and Chicago players.

RB Jordan Mason, San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams – FanDuel Salary: $5,700

As detailed extensively in NFL Week 18 Game Environments to Target and Avoid, San Francisco is expected to experience a run-heavy game script as 4.0-point home favorites against a Los Angeles run defense missing multiple stars. San Francisco is limited in its player-transactions capability, requiring savvy FanDuel users to interpret head coach Kyle Shanahan’s intent. While No. 2 running back Elijah Mitchell is likely to be active, No. 3 running back Jordan Mason has a chance to operate as the team’s featured running back both based on his previously strong performances and the opportunity to rest Mitchell’s nagging knee issues. Among 93 NFL running backs with at least 70 offensive snaps, Mitchell’s 68.5 PFF offense grade ranks No. 51 and Mason’s 86.6 PFF offense grade ties for No. 6.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives San Francisco a 25.0% run-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 18’s seventh-best.

Los Angeles’ star interior defender Bobby Brown III’s reoccurring knee injury is less serious than initially thought, however, Los Angeles may still rest him alongside interior defender Aaron Donald and linebacker Ernest Jones. 

Per Sean McVay: The Rams will rest Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, Aaron Donald and Ernest Jones, all healthy, in anticipation of the postseason.
Tyler Higbee (shoulder) and Joe Noteboom (foot) will miss Sunday's game due to injuries.

— Jourdan Rodrigue (@JourdanRodrigue) January 3, 2024

Among 107 NFL interior defenders with at least 135 run-defense snaps, Brown’s 66.9 PFF run-defense grade ranks No. 24 and Donald’s 71.4 PFF run-defense grade ranks No. 14. Among 33 NFL linebackers with at least 300 run-defense snaps, Jones’ 90.0 PFF run-defense grade ranks No. 2. 

Mason’s $5,700 FanDuel salary is $4,800 short of the positional maximum. He profiles as an extremely contrarian GPP tournament RB1 and an easily affordable RB2 in cash games.

Mason’s rushing data among 81 NFL running backs with at least 30 rushing attempts:

As detailed in the aforementioned article, “[Mason] turned five red zone rushing attempts into two touchdowns and one first-down gained. Among 82 NFL running backs with at least five red zone rushing attempts, Mason’s 75.5 PFF red zone-rushing grade ranks No. 8.

Mason has access to a high-volume role in a very soft matchup.

TE Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks – FanDuel Salary: $6,700

Arizona (4-12) continues playing starters at a full-time rate despite being eliminated from NFL playoff contention long ago. Arizona seeks to play spoiler for a division-rival Seattle team that should lean heavily into their passing offense, as detailed in Week 18’s WR/CB Matchup to Target and Avoid. Arizona tight end Trey McBride offers FanDuel users an affordable $6,700 salary and can be employed as either an elite TE1 or flex option. His 81.0 PFF receiving grade ranks No. 4 among 31 NFL tight ends with at least 270 receiving snaps. McBride finished as a mid-to-high TE1 in three of his last five games.

PFF’s TE matchup chart gives McBride a 23.0% receiving matchup advantage rating over Seattle linebacker Devin Bush, Week 18’s fourth-best. Bush’s 58.0 PFF coverage grade ranks No. 64 among 91 NFL linebackers with at least 85 coverage snaps. 

Arizona’s No. 1 wide receiver Marquise Brown resides on injured reserve, allowing McBride uncontested access to the team’s No. 1 pass catcher role. Brown’s 68.1 PFF receiving grade ranks No. 3 among nine Arizona pass catchers with at least 100 receiving snaps. 

McBride is thriving in his featured second-year role. Among 31 NFL tight ends with at least 30 first-read targets, McBride ties for No. 5 with 74 first-read targets and ranks No. 3in YPRR (2.37) and No. 1 in target rate (28.5%). He is also one among 16 NFL tight ends with at least 10 splash zone targets.

McBride likewise ranks top two in both overall target rate (26.1%) and YPRR (2.08), ranked among 31 NFL tight ends with at least 270 receiving snaps.

Seattle’s tight end-coverage unit ranks No. 23 or worse in success rate allowed (59.0%), EPA allowed per play (0.454), catch rate allowed (77.1%), yards allowed per coverage snap (8.33) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (17.1%). 

FanDuel users should employ McBride both as a Week 18 tight end and flex option.