Fantasy Football: 3 must-draft rookie wide receivers

2T4A9F8 Winston Salem, United States. 28th Oct, 2023. October 28, 2023: Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Keon Coleman (4) breaks for a touchdown against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in the ACC football match up at Allegacy Stadium in Winston-Salem, NC. (Scott Kinser/CSM/Sipa USA) (Credit Image: © Scott Kinser/Cal Sport Media/Sipa USA) Credit: Sipa US/Alamy Live News

WR Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills: Coleman has a chance to lead the team in targets in year one. His 70.3 PFF grade in 2023 ranked 48th among 74 Power Five wide receivers with at least 600 offensive snaps.

WR Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers: McConkey should comfortably lead his team in targets en route to a top-36 positional finish. His 82.6 PFF grade in 2023 ranked 13th among 283 Power Five wide receivers with at least 225 offensive snaps.

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The NFL’s 2024 rookie wide receiver class is a deep, talented group rife with fantasy football contributors who can be found outside the position’s early-round-one elite tier. All three players listed below should be targeted in re-draft fantasy football formats.


WR Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills drafted former Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman into the perfect situation with the 33rd overall draft pick. Coleman profiles as a WR3-viable rookie capable of leading his team in targets thanks to a fantasy-friendly role and a standout skill set.

As detailed in “Best Wide Receiver Landing Spots in the 2024 NFL Draft,” departed Buffalo Nos. 1 and 2 wide receivers Stefon Diggs (10.6-yard average depth of target) and Gabe Davis (15.6) left sizable roster holes.

Diggs earned a 79.0 PFF receiving grade and Davis posted a 68.7 mark in 2023, ranking tied for 24th and 52nd, respectively, among 64 NFL wide receivers with at least 65 targets.

Buffalo’s pre-draft pass-catching corps consisted of players who produced sub-7.5-yard average target depths in 2023, leaving a 100-plus-target lane for a respectable intermediate-to-deep threat. The article also details environmental factors, including Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s fantasy-friendly fast offensive pace.

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Coleman successfully operated at both depths last year, producing a 12.4-yard average target depth to rank 19th among 48 Power Five wide receivers with at least 85 targets, as well as a third-ranked 27.6% deep-target rate. His yardage results are erratic, but this is at least partially attributable to Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis, whose weak arm and flawed fundamentals are highlighted in PFF’s 2024 NFL draft big board. Coleman caught just 57.5% of his targets, fourth worst among qualifying wide receivers, but hauled in 94.3% of targets deemed catchable, eighth best.

Buffalo frequently sent both Diggs and Davis on routes 10-plus yards downfield, tasking Diggs with fantasy-friendly, high-value routes over the middle while Davis stretched the field along the perimeter. Coleman is equipped to split time in both roles, having earned 17 (19.5%) of his targets via the former role and 28 (32.2%) in the latter. Coleman saw 87 total targets in 2023.

College skill position players who also play efficiently in the return game have a long record of offensive success in the NFL, and Coleman owns such a skill set. Former Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown (two-time MAC Special Teams Player of the Year) and current Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett (two-time Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Year) are good examples.

Coleman is just “the second-ever player to earn first-team [conference] honors at three positions with his selections at wide receiver, all-purpose, and specialist.” He forced 22 missed tackles on 24 punt returns. His 90.2 PFF punt return grade and 0.92 missed tackles forced per return both ranked top five among 28 Power Five returners with at least 20 total returns and 15 punt returns.

Sage film guru Matt Waldman identified Buffalo as Coleman’s ideal landing spot during the pre-NFL draft process. His post-draft thoughts are found via his RSP Cast.

Coleman is WR3-viable in year one.


WR Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers

McConkey should sail past 100 targets en route to a top-36 positional finish, thanks to his beatable target competition and an ideal No. 1 wide receiver profile.

As detailed in “Best Wide Receiver Landing Spots in the 2024 NFL Draft,” the four 2023 rookie wide receivers to produce top-36 points-per-reception finishes all caught passes from highly graded quarterbacks. McConkey’s landing spot fits the bill:

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (86.1 PFF receiving grade), Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers (75.2 PFF receiving grade), Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison (69.7 PFF receiving grade) and Green Bay Packers Jayden Reed (74.4 PFF receiving grade) all produced top-36 PPR results in their 2023 rookie seasons, playing alongside talented veteran pass catchers. Their respective quarterbacks all graded within 3.0 points of Justin Herbert’s 10th-ranked (among 30 NFL quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks) 83.1 PFF passing grade.”

While head coach Jim Harbaugh’s run-heavy ways will hurt the team’s overall passing volume, McConkey still has easy access to 100-plus targets — likely more than 120 — because of Los Angeles’ depleted pass-catching corps.

Fourth-year wide receiver Joshua Palmer is McConkey’s only real obstacle for the No. 1 role. Palmer produced identical 1.20 YPRR rates in years one and two before ascending to a 35th-ranked 1.71 YPRR in 2023, ranked among 74 NFL wide receivers with at least 60 targets. He produced just a 17.5% (career best) target rate despite Los Angeles’ remaining pass catchers missing 22 combined games.

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Second-year wide receiver Quentin Johnston faceplanted in his 2023 rookie season, posting bottom-two finishes in PFF receiving grade (58.7 PFF receiving grade), YPRR (0.88) and target rate (13.3%) among 27 NFL rookie wide receivers to earn at least 25 targets in any of the past three NFL seasons.

At 6-foot and 186 pounds with electric quicks, sub-4.40-second long speed and explosive jumping ability, McConkey profiles as a modern-day No. 1 wide receiver. McConkey and generational tight end prospect Brock Bowers spent three years jockeying for team-best efficiency rates at Georgia. Among Georgia pass catchers to earn at least 35 targets in any season from 2021 to 2023, McConkey produced three of the top five target rate finishes and two of the top four YPRR finishes.

McConkey averaged more than 6.0 yards after the catch per reception in all three seasons, dominating the opposition in his inside-outside role. Among 151 Power Five wide receivers with at least 25 targets when lined up on the perimeter pre-snap, McConkey’s 3.17 YPRR ranks fourth. Although his slot-aligned 2023 production came via a 10-target sample size, he promisingly increased his YPRR to 3.59.

McConkey has a clear path to a PPR WR3 finish while operating as the Chargers' No. 1 pass catcher.


WR Luke McCaffrey, Washington Commanders

The third-rounder McCaffrey is a must-draft, late-round pick in PPR scoring formats. The quarterback-to-wide receiver convert excelled on targets thrown to the middle of the field, possessing a team-best skill set that should yield a Week 1 role. McCaffrey’s 82.7 PFF receiving grade ranks 19th among 60 FBS wide receivers with at least 95 targets in 2023.

McCaffrey’s transition to wide receiver in 2022 came with its ups and downs, but as detailed in “4 Best Role Players in the 2024 NFL Draft,” he reduced his drop rate in 2023 by 3.9 percentage points and increased his deep-target rate by 3.3 percentage points and his explosive pass play rate by 10.4 percentage points.

McCaffrey’s over-the-middle dominance is best exemplified by his respective 9.4 and 9.5 yards after catch per reception figures and 49.3% and 29.4% target rates on 33 and 30 over-the-middle targets in 2022 and 2023.

No. 2 wide receiver Jahan Dotson, running back Austin Ekeler and tight end Zach Ertz are McCaffrey’s target competition for this over-the-middle role. Among those three players on over-the-middle targets, Dotson (0.7 yards) and Ertz (2.4 yards) struggled to produce after the catch and Ekeler earned just an 18.9% target rate.

McCaffrey has a clear-cut path to a featured Week 1 role. He should be drafted aggressively via a late-round re-draft ADP in PPR scoring formats.

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