- Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars: The expected game script could increase Carolina’s offensive play volume.
- Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos: The Broncos’ offensive line should negate the Titans’ pass rush.
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Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes
The report below identifies fantasy-friendly and unfriendly NFL defenses. Highlighted statistical variables include success rate allowed, expected points added (EPA) allowed per play, explosive plays allowed, offensive plays allowed per game, offensive pass play rate faced, quarterback pressure rate and blitz rate.
Each week’s fantasy-friendly and unfriendly offense matchups are detailed in a weekly partner piece, titled “Fantasy Football 2025: Fantasy-friendly offenses report.” NFL offenses and defense will occasionally be detailed in one or both partner pieces.
Success rate allowed and EPA per play allowed
Success rate allowed and EPA allowed per play among NFL teams in 2024:
The Dallas Cowboys‘ defense was a unit to target for fantasy purposes before losing two stalwart edge rushers. Both the Philadelphia Eagles’ 7.5-point home-favorite spread and the game’s 47.5-point over/under could hit overs, forecasting ample Cowboys dropbacks for Philadelphia’s elite defense/special teams (D/ST) unit to exploit.
The Cleveland Browns’ proven pass catchers can exploit the Cincinnati Bengals’ significant defensive weaknesses.
Miami Dolphins cornerback Kader Kohou (68.9 PFF coverage grade) will miss the 2025 season with a partially torn ACL. All remaining penciled-in starting cornerbacks earned sub-59.0 PFF coverage grades, which bodes positively for an otherwise unexciting Indianapolis Colts receiving corps. Miami’s offensive position roles are in flux. Colts interior defender DeForest Buckner’s recurring back injury could prove pivotal for the Dolphins’ run game. Rookie running back Ollie Gordon II, who earned a 67.2 PFF rushing grade in the preseason, must be stashed.
The Arizona Cardinals’ upgraded defense, missing three starters and/or high-impact rotational passing game defenders, could surrender moderate garbage time showings to the New Orleans Saints’ featured pass catchers. New Orleans’ secondary lost three of five stalwart starters, dating back to a 2024 in-season trade, and one-of-two remaining starters has been sidelined for three-plus weeks with a soft tissue strain. The defense’s two capable linebackers cannot make up for its pushover interior defender group.
The Tennessee Titans’ ascending offense faces the NFL’s reigning defensive champion in EPA allowed per play, the Denver Broncos. Expectations for Tennessee’s shallow skill position corps must be checked. The Titans’ reinforced defensive line is its only defensive strength.
Explosive run plays allowed and explosive pass plays allowed
Explosive run plays and explosive pass plays allowed among NFL teams in Weeks 1-18, 2024:
The Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears game could sail past its 44.0-point over/under, with both teams possessing secondary health concerns. Bears No. 1 cornerback Jaylon Johnson and slot cornerback Kyler Gordon are both rehabbing soft tissue strains. Vikings safety Harrison Smith is managing an undisclosed health issue. Bears rookie tight end Colston Loveland’s TE1-viability is enhanced by Smith’s ailment. Among 90 Power Five tight ends with at least 370 offensive snaps in 2024, Loveland’s 85.9 PFF offense grade ranks third.
The New England Patriots usher in a new era under head coach Mike Vrabel, featuring safety position concerns, big-name free agent signings and an injured cornerstone defender. Explosive pass play gains can be had against Vrabel’s transitioning unit. Their Week 1 opponent, the Las Vegas Raiders, are likewise under new leadership, with head coach Pete Carroll now at the helm. Carroll’s defense profiles as a stars-and-scrubs unit that is unprepared to stymie featured skill position players.
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (74.1 PFF rushing grade in preseason play) and second-round rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson (80.2 PFF offense grade in preseason play) respectively bear high-end QB1 and RB1 hallmarks. Undrafted free agent wide receiver Efton Chism III (84.6 PFF receiving grade in preseason play) must be stashed on dynasty rosters. Raiders wide receiver Dont’e Thornton (63.3 PFF receiving grade in preseason play) secured field-stretching duties this summer. He is a boom/bust WR5 thanks to the Patriots’ defensive concerns.
Both the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers filled defensive needs via the 2025 NFL draft after effectively limiting explosive gains in 2024. Seattle remains D/ST1-viable. The game’s 43.5-point over/under is reasonable, though the 49ers‘ perimeter coverage could surrender chunk gains.
The Carolina Panthers return interior defender Derrick Brown, who suffered a season-ending meniscus tear last year, and earned a 90.1 PFF defense grade the year prior. He poses problems for new Jacksonville Jaguars head coach, Liam Coen, and his interior rushing attack. Featuring speedy receiving backs could negate the issue. Serving as Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 2024 offensive coordinator, Coen’s running backs tie for 13th among NFL regular-season teams in first-read running back targets (22) and rank second in running back targets (116).
Among Jacksonville’s five new pass rushers and coverage defenders, four will face Carolina. The unit can contend with Carolina’s offensive line and likely stymie productivity for Panthers role players. Jacksonville’s cause is aided by new defensive coordinator and former Green Bay Packers linebackers coach and run game coordinator, Anthony Campanile.
Offensive plays per game allowed and opponent pass play rate
Offensive plays allowed per game and the opponent’s pass play rate against among NFL teams in 2024:
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons game still profiles as a high-volume shootout despite both front offices upgrading their pass–rush units.
Surrendering explosive pass plays while opponents attempt to keep pace on the scoreboard was the Baltimore Ravens’ lone defensive issue last year. The front office invested heavily in pass-defense depth via free agency and the 2025 NFL draft, though three rotational defensive backs have already suffered season-ending injuries and health concerns are a pressing issue for high-impact veterans. The Buffalo Bills likewise enter their Week 1 bout with Baltimore missing their Nos. 2 and 3 perimeter cornerbacks. The front office successfully upgraded the defensive line via free agency and the 2025 NFL draft, but top-tier mobile quarterbacks with sturdy offensive lines should fare well, given their own secondary’s state.
Quarterback pressure rate and pass blitz rate
Quarterback pressure rate and pass blitz rate among NFL teams in 2024:
A short-staffed Washington Commanders offensive line is tasked with fending off a New York Giants pass rush that ranked seventh among 2024 NFL teams with a 75.5 PFF pass-rush grade before adding No. 3 overall pick, edge rusher Abdul Carter, whose 92.0 PFF pass-rush grade ranks first among 32 Power Four edge rushers with at least 330 pass-rushing snaps. The dynamic should clarify the Commanders’ short-area passing game roles. Washington, meanwhile, failed to significantly upgrade their defensive personnel, which should facilitate explosive gains for the Giants’ skill position players possessing long speed.
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ front-seven remains elite, if short-staffed, and the revamped cornerback corps is among the NFL’s best. The unit can be counted on for Week 1 D/ST purposes. The New York Jets’ defensive personnel has weaknesses, but new head coach and former Detroit Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn’s man coverage scheme could pose problems for opposing No. 1 wide receivers, pending good health for cornerback Sauce Gardner (calf), who earned a 73.1 PFF coverage grade last year and is said to be focused on generating turnovers.
The Houston Texans’ D/ST can sack its way to fantasy success against the Los Angeles Rams. Los Angeles’ defensive tacticians could pose problems for the former tight ends coach and passing game coordinator, Nick Caley, who now serves as Houston’s offensive coordinator.
The Los Angeles Chargers’ defense should take another step under second-year defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. The Kansas City Chiefs bolstered their already-talented defensive front via the 2025 NFL draft. Only moderate sack sums can be expected in this uniquely strong offensive matchup.
Both the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers boast talented, deep defenses. While stops, sacks and turnovers are expected, the overall offensive environment is too fruitful for managers to shy away from Lions and Packers in start-sit decisions.
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