• Harder, better, faster, stronger? Not always: High-end physical talent doesn’t always translate to production.
• Good things sometimes take time: Playing quarterback in the NFL is tough. Not every quarterback can hit the ground running, and even the top-billed passers can struggle early.
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It’s too early to make sweeping conclusions about the 2023 NFL Draft. Rookies entering the league and contributing at a high level are rarer than many might think. It will be another year or two before many players in last year’s draft class truly find their footing in the NFL.
However, it isn’t too early to attempt to learn from what transpired over the past year or two. Here are some of my bigger takeaways from recent drafts as we get closer to the start of the 2024 NFL Draft.
99th-percentile numbers don’t always translate
It’s easy to become enamored with the measurables used to quantify a player's physical ability. There’s so often an advantage to being the fastest or strongest player on the field — look no further than the transcendent speed of Tyreek Hill or the earth-shattering strength of Myles Garrett. Both are smart and nuanced players in their own right, but their physical traits make them the players they are. NFL teams see how much that sort of specimen, with so much raw physical talent, can change a franchise.
But tapping into that rawness and expunging that potential is no easy feat, and sometimes it’s all too easy to look at the NFL combine numbers and create a narrative from them.
The 2022 No. 1 overall pick, Travon Walker, put up historically good numbers at the combine. His RAS score of 9.98 rightly paints him as an otherworldly athlete, but he was also seen as a project compared to prospects such as Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux. While they’ve matured and grown into effective edge rushers, Walker has stagnated. He earned just a 53.9 grade and recorded 59 pressures in 2023, whereas Hutchinson posted a 91.0 grade and 121 pressures.
The physical freaks will always have their place in the game. But even the 2023 NFL Draft, with Will Anderson Jr. being drafted over freaky athlete Tyree Wilson, showed that the NFL quickly reminded itself that nuance and skill set are just as important as the testing numbers.
Anderson finished his rookie season with an 81.6 grade, the best among rookie edge rushers. Wilson finished at 47.1.
Even the top-billed QBs take time to develop
Rookie quarterbacks are often tasked with changing the fate of an entire franchise. From the word go, they are expected to perform well, often to their detriment.
Like every other position, the quarterback position has a real adjustment period in the NFL. Defenses are faster and stronger at the NFL level, and quarterbacks generally have less time to decipher and problem-solve. Not every quarterback can hit the ground running, and few actually do in Year 1.
Trevor Lawrence was viewed as a generational prospect, mentioned in the same ilk as quarterback prospects like Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and John Elway. When he got to the NFL, he immediately found himself in one of the worst environments in recent history and posted a 59.6 grade in his rookie season, completing less than 60% of his passes and throwing a league-leading 17 interceptions.
However, Lawrence has since started to find his feet. He posted a 78.6 PFF grade in 2022 and a 79.7 grade in 2023, throwing 51 touchdowns in the process.
Bryce Young entered the 2023 season as the No. 1 overall pick and the best quarterback in the class. He struggled mightily in his rookie season, earning a 52.6 passing grade, 40th among 45 qualified quarterbacks. Young was tarred with the bust brush like Lawrence before him, but it’s too early to write him off.
Don’t expect quarterbacks to hit the ground running, especially if they're set to land in an unfavorable situation.
Don’t expect offensive linemen to produce early
The 2023 NFL season was a timely reminder of how difficult it is to play on the offensive line, especially as a rookie. The physical demands of the offensive line and playing against grown 300-pound men are challenging enough, but the growing athletic abilities of defensive linemen are making the job of protecting the quarterback and opening up holes in the running game even more difficult.
Those predicted struggles reflected onto the field, too, as the 2023 offensive line class struggled to make an impact. Early production at tackle, guard or center isn’t the expectation, even for first-round picks.
Only nine of the 25 qualifying rookie linemen finished with a grade of 60.0 or higher in 2023. The quality shone through as Paris Johnson Jr., Darnell Wright, Peter Skoronski, and Broderick Jones — all first-round picks — finished with grades higher than 60.0.
More receivers are hitting the ground running
In recent seasons, the production from rookie pass-catchers across the league has increased. Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and Garrett Wilson were all big contributors in their rookie seasons, but in 2023, the class exploded.
Nine pass-catchers from the 2023 NFL class finished with 70.0-plus receiving grades, with Puka Nacua, Rashee Rice and Sam LaPorta all standing out. Beyond them, the likes of Tank Dell, Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers were exceptionally important contributors to their teams.
The quality of the talent isn’t just restricted to the first round. Nacua slipped through the cracks and was a fifth-round pick for the Los Angeles Rams, while Dell, Josh Downs and Jayden Reed were mid-round picks who found success in their rookie seasons.
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