• Bet Logan Thomas OVER 35.5 receiving yards: In his three fully healthy weeks played, he leads the team in targets, playing almost every snap with little competition at the position.
• Bet Chris Olave OVER 4.5 receptions: His lines on both receptions and yards this week are heavily based on a lackluster past two weeks, but a bounce-back is in store for the Saints' passing offense.
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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
Our best bets last week started well, with Tua Tagovailoa going under his passing attempts and Jaylen Warren going over his receiving line. Then, the Cowboys failed to cover versus the 49ers, the Packers went under their team total and Kadarius Toney went under his receiving totals. Josey Jewell did manage to accumulate enough tackles and assists to go over his number, but it was a losing week overall.
We lost 1.06 units for the week, and our season-long numbers are now at +6.75 units (win one unit per bet) for an 18.05% return on investment.
Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons — TE Logan Thomas Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-118 BetMGM)
Atlanta's defense has been excellent over the first five weeks of the season, with their run defense and outside cornerbacks doing the bulk of the work. However, the unit has been vulnerable to teams that can attack over the middle of the field.
Lions tight end Sam LaPorta caught eight passes for 84 yards and a touchdown in Week 3 against Atlanta, and none of Detroit's outside receivers recorded a catch in the game. Jaguars wide receiver Christian Kirk caught eight passes for 84 yards from the slot and Jaguars tight end Evan Engram finished with seven receptions for 59 yards in Week 4. And last week, Texans tight end Dalton Schultz hauled in seven passes for 65 yards and a score.
Logan Thomas has been an excellent tight end when healthy over the past few years, and quarterback Sam Howell has looked for him often early this season. Thomas exited with an injury against Denver in Week 2 after recording two catches for 22 yards and a touchdown, but in his three full weeks played, he leads the team in targets, playing almost every snap with little competition at the position.
New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans — Chris Olave Over 4.5 Receptions (-113 FanDuel)
Derek Carr has played the past two weeks while somewhat unhealthy, especially in Week 4 against Tampa Bay. He checked the ball down often to Alvin Kamara, who caught 13 passes for just 33 yards. Wide receiver Chris Olave picked up just one catch for four yards, and the Saints' passing game offered no downfield threat despite playing from behind for the majority of the game.
Carr was healthier last week, but the need to pass downfield didn't quite exist due to the Patriots' ineptitude. Once again, Chris Olave was limited to just two catches for 12 yards and a touchdown.
The Texans, however, have been doing an excellent job on offense through the first five weeks. We can expect this to be much more competitive matchup. Houston had major secondary concerns versus the Falcons last week, giving up more than 300 yards to Desmond Ridder, and while they return Tavierre Thomas and Shaquill Griffin, they are still limited at the position, which Olave can exploit.
Through three weeks with a healthy quarterback and a neutral game script, Olave picked up 22 catches from 32 targets for 302 yards. His lines on both receptions and yards this week are heavily based on the past two weeks, but there are easy answers for the low production.
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