• Bet Cole Kmet OVER 27.5 receiving yards: Tight ends are getting the job done against Denver when given the opportunity, and opportunities will be available for Kmet, who has run a route on 75% of the Bears' passing downs and leads the team in targets.
• Bet Jerome Ford UNDER 13.5 rushing attempts: Ford has been rather inefficient outside of his big run against the Steelers, and if he averages 1.8 yards per carry as he did against Tennessee, his role is certainly going to be reduced.
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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
Our NFL betting previews are on a hot streak. Dalton Schultz could not get over his receptions line for the Texans against the Jaguars, but Skyy Moore went over his receiving yards line, Justin Herbert hit both of the higher-odds plays, the Steelers beat the Raiders and Baker Mayfield went under his passing yards line on Monday night. Our last bet was a loser, as Luke Musgrave — who we had going over his receptions total — suffered a concussion on his first catch.
We are up 3.51 units over the past week of action, and the NFL bets over the course of the season now sit at +7.12 units for a 31.8% return on investment.
Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears — Cole Kmet Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-113 FanDuel)
Things are not rosy in either city right now. Chicago is 0-3 after a humiliating loss to the Chiefs, but that was nothing compared to the demolition that Denver received at the hands of the Miami Dolphins.
This is a get-right spot for both teams against defenses that are struggling. Denver has played the Raiders and Dolphins, who rank 31st and 32nd in tight end targets this season, but the Broncos gave up a 15-yard catch and a 20-yard catch on three combined targets in those games. In their other game against the Commanders, who target tight ends at a top-five league rate, the Broncos surrendered seven tight end catches for 89 yards on nine targets.
Tight ends are getting the job done against Denver when given the opportunity, and opportunities will be available for Cole Kmet, who has run a route on 75% of the Bears' passing downs and leads the team in targets.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns — Jerome Ford Under 13.5 Rushing Attempts (-114 FanDuel)
Jerome Ford was the talk of the town after Nick Chubb was lost for the season due to injury. Ford went on to rip off a 69-yard run, coming up a yard short of a touchdown, and it was widely expected that he would be the lead back last week after the Browns picked up Kareem Hunt just a few days prior.
But although Ford ended up leading the team in carries (10) last week, he was the sixth player to get a carry in the game. His role might not be as clear-cut going forward now that Hunt has had another week to re-acclimate to the Browns' offense. Pierre Strong is also in the mix, handling six carries in Week 3.
Browns' Rushers | Week 3, 2023
Ford has been rather inefficient outside of his big run against the Steelers, and if he averages 1.8 yards per carry as he did against Tennessee, his role is certainly going to be reduced.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans — Bengals -2.5 (-110 generally available)
The line is under three because we are relying on Joe Burrow to hold up amid his current injury situation and because the Bengals' offense has been wholly inefficient through three games.
But the Titans have one of the worst secondaries in the league through three games, giving up a 54.6% success rate, and given that they currently possess the NFL's best run defense, teams are just going to continue to pass against them. Tee Higgins is due for some positive regression, having had a two-catch game and a zero-catch game from 15 targets in those two outings, and Ja’Marr Chase found his feet against the Rams, going for 141 yards on 12 catches.
The Titans' offense lacks speed, and teams have not had much of an issue keeping them under wraps. In the first half against the Browns prior to the two-minute drill, Ryan Tannehill had just 27 yards passing. And in the entire second half, he mustered up just 13 passing yards. Treylon Burks, one of Tennessee's two starting receivers, has already been ruled out, and there is a real danger that the Titans become a one-dimensional, easy-to-read offense with the Bengals having to worry only about DeAndre Hopkins, who is struggling to gain separation at this stage of his career.
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